Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Serven, Brian
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.221 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.274 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.237 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.176
0.205
0.237
0.269
0.298
wOBA
0.201
0.228
0.259
0.290
0.318
ISO
0.064
0.091
0.121
0.152
0.179
K%
18.5%
22.7%
27.4%
32.1%
36.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
59
+48 vs proj
Exit velocity86.8
38
Hard-hit%30.6%
19
xBA0.299
28
xSLG0.510
54
xwOBA0.274
22
+21 vs proj
BB%3.3%
4
-29 vs proj
Bat speed67.9
29
K%26.1%
33
+27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.5 · C
90
Catcher Throwing-0.3 · C
45
Framing Runs-0.4 · C
44
Pop Time2.0 · C
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · C
16
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
22
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
22
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.340 · validated
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
39 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.078 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
| Sample | 92 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 208 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.196 | 0.127 to 0.293 | +/- 0.083 |
| ISO | 0.086 | 0.035 to 0.192 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 2.0% | 0.2% to 5.9% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 24.1% | 11.3% to 43.0% | +/- 15.9% |
| K% | 33.5% | 17.1% to 42.0% | +/- 12.4% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 2.6% to 11.6% | +/- 4.5% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.149 to 0.367 | +/- 0.109 |
vs LHP
95 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.059 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 2.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
273 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.058 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 2.2% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |