Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Rivas, Leo

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.292 xwOBA
Range
0.213 to 0.331
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
9
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
19
Defense3 metrics
34
Speed1 metrics
53
Plate skills10 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.283
xwOBA current pace0.250
xwOBA rolling p500.269
Observed weight43%
xwOBA
0.231 0.249 0.269 0.290 0.308
wOBA
0.229 0.250 0.273 0.297 0.318
ISO
0.027 0.051 0.077 0.104 0.128
K%
20.1% 22.1% 24.4% 26.6% 28.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.2%
4
Exit velocity85.9
28
Hard-hit%19.1%
2
xBA0.262
8
xSLG0.353
4
xwOBA0.250
10 -26 vs proj
BB%12.9%
92
Bat speed61.2
1
K%27.0%
27 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.0 · 3B
32
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-1.0 · 3B
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · 3B
53
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.9% · rebadged research
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2% · rebadged research
16
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303 · validated
96
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Rivas, Leo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.250 2026-09-12: 0.2502026-09-13: 0.2502026-09-14: 0.2502026-09-18: 0.2502026-09-19: 0.2502026-09-20: 0.2502026-09-21: 0.2502026-09-22: 0.2502026-09-23: 0.2502026-09-24: 0.2502026-09-25: 0.2502026-09-26: 0.250 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

90 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Rivas, Leo · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-03-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 18.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 50.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 19.02026-03-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 35.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · popup · EV 91.9 / LA 58.02026-03-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 80.6 / LA 24.02026-03-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -5.02026-03-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 16.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 42.02026-03-23 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -16.02026-03-23 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 10.02026-03-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 58.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 35.02026-03-27 · triple · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.8 / LA 29.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 34.02026-03-28 · fielders choice out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.4 / LA -3.02026-03-28 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -13.02026-03-29 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 16.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 54.4 / LA 10.02026-03-30 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 4.02026-03-30 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 4.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.6 / LA 68.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 27.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 0.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -30.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.8 / LA -46.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -44.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 17.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 40.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 38.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -2.02026-04-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 16.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · popup · EV 82.4 / LA 59.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.9 / LA 63.02026-04-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 1.02026-04-18 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 84.7 / LA 20.02026-04-18 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 78.6 / LA -25.02026-04-18 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.1 / LA 46.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 34.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.5 / LA 28.02026-04-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -3.02026-04-20 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 13.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 32.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.9 / LA 65.02026-04-21 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 32.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA 9.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA 9.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.1 / LA 34.02026-04-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 93.3 / LA 15.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 93.0 / LA 21.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 54.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 27.02026-04-25 · sac bunt · SI · ground_ball · EV 31.0 / LA -22.02026-04-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 71.8 / LA 21.02026-04-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 20.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 34.02026-04-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.9 / LA 60.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -6.02026-04-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 82.3 / LA -44.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · popup · EV 83.0 / LA 66.02026-05-02 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA 20.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 77.9 / LA 41.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 37.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA -6.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 42.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.5 / LA 63.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.6 / LA 33.02026-05-06 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 1.02026-05-06 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.1 / LA -9.02026-05-09 · sac bunt · FF · ground_ball · EV 33.1 / LA -21.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 1.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 34.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 71.7 / LA 33.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 18.02026-05-16 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -6.02026-05-17 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 45.02026-08-02 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 7.02026-08-02 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 83.3 / LA -27.02026-08-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 46.02026-08-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -28.02026-08-13 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 8.02026-08-21 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 16.02026-08-22 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 64.9 / LA 31.02026-08-22 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 9.02026-08-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA -6.02026-08-23 · field out · FA · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 27.02026-08-23 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 6.02026-08-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 45.02026-09-25 · field out · CH · popup · EV 60.2 / LA 52.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Rivas, Leo · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 65.0 mph Hard swing rate 0% Whiff / swing 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Rivas, Leo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 51%51%Chase: 16%16%Whiff: 22%22%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 78%78%Hard hit: 19%19% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.041
wOBA Δ-0.018
Sample163 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances283----
Home Runs6----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2920.213 to 0.331+/- 0.059
ISO0.1000.011 to 0.185+/- 0.087
Barrel%2.3%0.4% to 5.5%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%27.4%16.7% to 39.8%+/- 11.6%
K%23.3%18.3% to 31.4%+/- 6.6%
BB%10.9%6.0% to 14.3%+/- 4.2%
BABIP0.2970.207 to 0.368+/- 0.080
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

83 career PA

xwOBA0.138
K%12.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel0.9%
vs RHP

172 career PA

xwOBA0.135
K%13.1%
BB%7.8%
Barrel1.0%