Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.288 vs 0.232 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Sánchez, Jesús
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
82
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.335 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.330 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.303
0.316
0.330
0.344
0.357
wOBA
0.328
0.346
0.367
0.387
0.406
ISO
0.134
0.149
0.166
0.184
0.199
K%
20.0%
21.4%
23.0%
24.6%
26.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
83
Exit velocity91.0
86
Hard-hit%47.5%
84
xBA0.365
87
xSLG0.604
78
xwOBA0.335
75
BB%4.8%
12
-32 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
75
K%22.3%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · RF
24
Arm Strength97.4 · RF
85
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs-5.7 · RF
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · RF
18
Sprint Speed26.4 · RF
25
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.2% · rebadged research
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
64
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
8
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
21
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
152 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| Sample | 251 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 505 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.322 | 0.293 to 0.368 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.167 | 0.113 to 0.234 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.9% to 9.3% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.9% | 40.7% to 52.6% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.6% | 19.7% to 30.0% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.4% to 11.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.246 to 0.340 | +/- 0.047 |
vs LHP
392 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.232 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
1738 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |