Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Moncada, Yoán
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team LAA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.308 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.270 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.252
0.271
0.292
0.314
0.333
wOBA
0.288
0.312
0.338
0.365
0.388
ISO
0.084
0.107
0.132
0.158
0.180
K%
26.1%
28.1%
30.4%
32.6%
34.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.3%
94
+57 vs proj
Barrel%4.1%
35
-15 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
Exit velocity91.2
86
Hard-hit%45.7%
75
+33 vs proj
K%35.4%
2
xBA0.288
22
xSLG0.487
42
xwOBA0.270
16
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 3B
4
Range Runs-4.2 · 3B
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0% · rebadged research
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.3% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · borderline
97
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
9
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259 · validated thin sample
90
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
72 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.029 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.039 |
| Sample | 147 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 351 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.250 to 0.368 | +/- 0.059 |
| ISO | 0.142 | 0.087 to 0.241 | +/- 0.077 |
| Barrel% | 5.1% | 3.5% to 8.5% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.2% | 32.0% to 50.8% | +/- 9.4% |
| K% | 29.1% | 21.6% to 34.1% | +/- 6.2% |
| BB% | 7.7% | 5.6% to 11.1% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.250 to 0.350 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
845 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |
vs RHP
2742 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.220 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |