Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Wong, Connor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.286 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.282 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.245
0.262
0.282
0.301
0.318
wOBA
0.319
0.351
0.386
0.421
0.452
ISO
0.085
0.113
0.144
0.176
0.204
K%
19.8%
22.3%
25.0%
27.7%
30.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.1%
53
+34 vs proj
Barrel%2.3%
17
-24 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
65
Exit velocity84.8
13
Hard-hit%36.7%
36
K%20.5%
59
+25 vs proj
xBA0.292
23
xSLG0.445
29
xwOBA0.286
28
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
48
Catcher Throwing0.2 · C
47
Framing Runs-1.9 · C
22
Pop Time2.0 · C
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · C
50
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.9% · rebadged research
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions62.9% · rebadged research
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.258 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
33
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
24
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
22
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
55 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.101 |
| Sample | 88 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 353 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.239 to 0.329 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.139 | 0.075 to 0.237 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 2.3% to 7.6% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.0% | 29.9% to 45.7% | +/- 7.9% |
| K% | 25.0% | 20.5% to 34.2% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.5% to 9.3% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.256 to 0.375 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
341 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.227 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |
vs RHP
864 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.211 |
| K% | 21.3% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 3.5% |