Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.267 vs 0.236 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Thomas, Lane
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
59
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.290
0.305
0.320
0.334
wOBA
0.308
0.323
0.339
0.355
0.369
ISO
0.124
0.139
0.155
0.172
0.187
K%
23.1%
24.3%
25.7%
27.1%
28.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
42
Exit velocity89.2
67
Hard-hit%40.8%
61
xBA0.333
69
xSLG0.511
55
xwOBA0.311
59
BB%12.2%
88
+50 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
K%24.9%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.8 · CF
91
Arm Strength96.8 · CF
72
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs-6.2 · CF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
75
Bolts16.0 · CF
72
SB Success Rate85.7% · CF
66
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
91
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
84
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306 · validated thin sample
9
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
52
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
80
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
130 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.039 |
| Sample | 393 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 340 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.240 to 0.356 | +/- 0.058 |
| ISO | 0.145 | 0.102 to 0.254 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.5% to 7.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.8% | 32.8% to 49.8% | +/- 8.5% |
| K% | 26.7% | 22.5% to 33.2% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 4.9% to 10.6% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.294 | 0.237 to 0.363 | +/- 0.063 |
vs LHP
739 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 17.7% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
1685 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 23.1% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |