Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / KC · 2026

Thomas, Lane

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.303 xwOBA
Range
0.243 to 0.361
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced regular Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
59
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
61
Defense4 metrics
51
Speed3 metrics
83
Plate skills10 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.298
xwOBA current pace0.327
xwOBA rolling p500.314
Observed weight57%
xwOBA
0.282 0.297 0.314 0.331 0.347
wOBA
0.320 0.337 0.356 0.375 0.392
ISO
0.116 0.134 0.153 0.172 0.190
K%
21.6% 23.0% 24.5% 26.0% 27.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
43
Exit velocity89.1
61
Hard-hit%41.0%
59
xBA0.341
69
xSLG0.513
51
xwOBA0.327
69 +24 vs proj
BB%13.2%
89 +52 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
K%22.6%
49 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.7 · CF
98
Arm Strength96.8 · CF
76
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs-4.7 · CF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
85
Bolts12.0 · CF
72
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
92
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
30
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
72
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307 · validated thin sample
7
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
64
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Thomas, Lane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.327 2026-07-05: 0.3142026-07-06: 0.3122026-07-07: 0.3122026-07-08: 0.3162026-07-09: 0.3222026-07-10: 0.3242026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3262026-07-13: 0.3252026-07-14: 0.3272026-07-15: 0.3272026-07-16: 0.327 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Lane Thomas's tools (75) outpace production (82) by -6 points. Primary finding: high exit velocity but low barrel rate — bat-to-ball efficiency is leaving power on the table. Also flagged: Passive In-Zone Approach.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach
Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

109 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Thomas, Lane · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsPull 19%Center field third: 72% of plotted batted ballsCenter 72%Right field third: 8% of plotted batted ballsOppo 8% LF 330 CF 410 RF 330 2026-03-15 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 52.02026-03-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.7 / LA -15.02026-03-19 · fielders choice · pitch · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA -15.02026-03-19 · field out · pitch · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -41.02026-03-19 · home run · pitch · fly_ball · EV 108.2 / LA 26.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.6 / LA -7.02026-03-21 · field out · FC · popup · EV 64.2 / LA 79.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 80.1 / LA -21.02026-03-23 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 11.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 33.02026-03-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 17.02026-03-28 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 27.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 47.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.0 / LA -13.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 46.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.4 / LA 78.02026-04-02 · field out · FC · popup · EV 64.5 / LA 83.02026-04-02 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.2 / LA -18.02026-04-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 18.02026-04-05 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA -11.02026-04-05 · field out · SV · popup · EV 82.5 / LA 68.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.3 / LA -23.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 54.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 82.4 / LA 13.02026-04-09 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 12.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.1 / LA 78.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 31.02026-04-14 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 19.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 51.02026-04-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 42.02026-04-15 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 53.02026-04-15 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 12.02026-04-16 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 16.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 77.2 / LA 37.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · popup · EV 48.6 / LA 54.02026-04-17 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 53.3 / LA 25.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -9.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 24.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 75.4 / LA 16.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · popup · EV 78.8 / LA 68.02026-04-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 4.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.1 / LA 18.02026-04-22 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 12.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 46.02026-04-22 · field out · ST · popup · EV 86.3 / LA 62.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 28.02026-04-26 · field out · CU · popup · EV 41.7 / LA 63.02026-04-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 1.02026-04-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.0 / LA -53.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 7.02026-04-26 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 27.02026-04-28 · force out · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.7 / LA -23.02026-04-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 13.02026-04-29 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 0.02026-04-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.6 / LA 54.02026-04-30 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 107.6 / LA -15.02026-05-01 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 78.1 / LA 15.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 47.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · popup · EV 68.7 / LA 57.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 55.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · popup · EV 84.7 / LA 70.02026-05-07 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 38.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -5.02026-05-09 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 58.8 / LA -21.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 25.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · popup · EV 63.1 / LA 47.02026-05-14 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 28.02026-05-14 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.0 / LA 10.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 69.9 / LA 14.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -25.02026-05-19 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 12.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 51.02026-05-19 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 75.3 / LA 23.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.7 / LA 52.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.1 / LA 30.02026-05-26 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA 10.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 35.02026-05-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 60.6 / LA -83.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 25.02026-05-31 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 18.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 46.02026-06-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA 10.02026-06-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.4 / LA -10.02026-06-01 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 12.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 49.02026-06-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 28.02026-06-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 95.6 / LA 15.02026-06-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 8.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.7 / LA 81.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -6.02026-06-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA -38.02026-06-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 59.0 / LA 24.02026-06-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 11.02026-06-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 1.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 7.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.2 / LA -19.02026-06-18 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.3 / LA 16.02026-06-18 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 96.7 / LA -10.02026-06-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -31.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA -5.02026-06-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.0 / LA 60.02026-06-22 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 17.02026-06-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 50.1 / LA -7.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 82.8 / LA 27.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.1 / LA -18.02026-06-30 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 89.5 / LA 17.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 9.02026-07-01 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 46.9 / LA -66.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Thomas, Lane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 21%21%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.267 vs 0.236 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
3
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.024
wOBA Δ+0.053
Sample288 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances340----
Home Runs11----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3030.243 to 0.361+/- 0.059
ISO0.1470.103 to 0.257+/- 0.077
Barrel%4.6%2.5% to 7.8%+/- 2.6%
Hard-Hit%39.8%32.8% to 49.8%+/- 8.5%
K%26.7%22.5% to 33.2%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.5%4.9% to 10.6%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.3020.244 to 0.373+/- 0.065
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

739 career PA

xwOBA0.267
K%17.7%
BB%7.3%
Barrel3.8%
vs RHP

1685 career PA

xwOBA0.236
K%23.1%
BB%6.2%
Barrel3.9%