Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Mullins, Cedric
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TB
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.243 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.269 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.243
0.255
0.269
0.282
0.295
wOBA
0.260
0.279
0.300
0.321
0.340
ISO
0.089
0.104
0.121
0.138
0.153
K%
16.8%
18.1%
19.6%
21.0%
22.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.4%
59
Barrel%1.4%
8
-19 vs proj
Bat speed66.1
13
Exit velocity84.3
11
Hard-hit%28.0%
10
-23 vs proj
K%17.4%
78
+29 vs proj
xBA0.224
1
xSLG0.342
4
xwOBA0.243
6
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · CF
61
Arm Strength89.8 · CF
24
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
90
Range Runs2.1 · CF
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · CF
46
Bolts1.0 · CF
17
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
22
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
53
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
57
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
50
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.283 · validated
100
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
145 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.046 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| Sample | 213 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 509 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 17 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.289 | 0.268 to 0.339 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.147 | 0.111 to 0.226 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 3.4% | 2.0% to 5.4% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.1% | 28.2% to 42.3% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 22.1% | 19.0% to 27.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.4% to 11.8% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.256 | 0.212 to 0.301 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
954 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.228 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |
vs RHP
2410 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |