Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Joe, Connor
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.369 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 20% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.283
0.309
0.334
0.357
wOBA
0.413
0.454
0.499
0.544
0.584
ISO
0.085
0.112
0.142
0.173
0.200
K%
17.3%
20.0%
23.0%
26.0%
28.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.5%
84
+23 vs proj
Barrel%5.4%
54
Bat speed70.7
67
Exit velocity90.0
70
Hard-hit%42.4%
61
+21 vs proj
K%26.8%
27
-15 vs proj
xBA0.421
99
xSLG0.653
85
xwOBA0.369
87
+56 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
45
Arm Runs-0.4 · RF
Limited
Range Runs-0.0 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.7 · RF
33
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.6% · rebadged research
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3% · rebadged research
59
Correct Decisions69.6% · rebadged research
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
30
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332 · validated
66
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
33 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.079 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.209 |
| Sample | 56 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 291 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.229 to 0.342 | +/- 0.056 |
| ISO | 0.130 | 0.089 to 0.230 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 2.3% to 7.5% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.5% | 29.4% to 45.2% | +/- 7.9% |
| K% | 23.0% | 17.5% to 31.3% | +/- 6.9% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 6.1% to 12.5% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.282 | 0.211 to 0.324 | +/- 0.056 |
vs LHP
685 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 16.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
1120 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.216 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |