Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Jackson, Alex
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.275 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.132 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.263 |
| Observed weight | 9% |
xwOBA
0.209
0.234
0.263
0.291
0.317
wOBA
0.249
0.313
0.385
0.456
0.521
ISO
0.072
0.117
0.167
0.217
0.262
K%
23.8%
26.9%
30.3%
33.8%
36.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.5 · C
Limited
Catcher Throwing0.3 · C
Limited
Framing Runs-0.3 · C
Limited
Pop Time1.9 · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 39.1% · rebadged research
2
Correct Decisions63.3% · rebadged research
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
61
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
11 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 275 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.225 to 0.342 | +/- 0.058 |
| ISO | 0.162 | 0.067 to 0.274 | +/- 0.103 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 1.7% to 8.1% | +/- 3.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.2% | 26.9% to 49.3% | +/- 11.2% |
| K% | 32.7% | 23.3% to 37.3% | +/- 7.0% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 3.4% to 9.6% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.182 to 0.350 | +/- 0.084 |
vs LHP
169 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.130 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
341 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.123 |
| K% | 18.8% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |