Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Hill, Derek
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team PHI
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
53
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.298 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.266
0.290
0.314
0.336
wOBA
0.325
0.348
0.373
0.399
0.422
ISO
0.097
0.119
0.144
0.169
0.191
K%
27.4%
29.3%
31.4%
33.5%
35.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
58
+15 vs proj
Exit velocity83.6
9
Hard-hit%33.3%
25
-21 vs proj
xBA0.393
95
xSLG0.647
87
xwOBA0.298
41
BB%7.5%
36
+22 vs proj
Bat speed67.1
21
K%35.4%
3
-20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · RF
54
Arm Strength92.4 · RF
47
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs2.3 · RF
77
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
49
Bolts11.0 · CF
70
SB Success Rate70.0% · CF
27
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
98
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.5% · rebadged research
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
84
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.297 · validated thin sample
15
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
59 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.087 |
| Sample | 161 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 305 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.287 | 0.222 to 0.367 | +/- 0.072 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.066 to 0.218 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 2.1% to 8.0% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.2% | 29.3% to 49.6% | +/- 10.1% |
| K% | 27.6% | 22.1% to 34.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 5.2% | 2.7% to 8.5% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.203 to 0.341 | +/- 0.069 |
vs LHP
255 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.184 |
| K% | 18.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
vs RHP
441 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.167 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |