Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Gray, Tristan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team MIN
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 30
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
45
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.316 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.263 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.243
0.265
0.290
0.315
0.337
wOBA
0.248
0.267
0.288
0.310
0.329
ISO
0.086
0.108
0.132
0.157
0.179
K%
25.1%
27.2%
29.4%
31.7%
33.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
33
-42 vs proj
Exit velocity87.7
48
Hard-hit%39.8%
57
xBA0.334
70
xSLG0.495
49
xwOBA0.263
15
-63 vs proj
BB%4.8%
12
-22 vs proj
Bat speed70.1
58
K%31.9%
9
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
77
Arm Strength87.0 · SS
49
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
73
Range Runs-3.3 · SS
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · SS
21
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.3% · rebadged research
12
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
64
Correct Decisions64.2% · rebadged research
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · borderline
97
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
78
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
17
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
28
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353 · validated
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
18
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
85 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.067 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.041 |
| Sample | 207 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 256 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.230 to 0.396 | +/- 0.083 |
| ISO | 0.190 | 0.068 to 0.243 | +/- 0.088 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 2.2% to 8.7% | +/- 3.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.6% | 26.9% to 50.8% | +/- 11.9% |
| K% | 28.4% | 18.6% to 33.5% | +/- 7.5% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 2.8% to 10.2% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.202 to 0.343 | +/- 0.071 |
vs LHP
47 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.133 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 2.4% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
164 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.135 |
| K% | 12.1% |
| BB% | 2.7% |
| Barrel | 3.0% |