Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.293 vs 0.256 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Arraez, Luis
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
22
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.350 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.307 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 75% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.308
0.318
0.328
0.338
wOBA
0.321
0.332
0.344
0.357
0.368
ISO
0.098
0.107
0.117
0.128
0.137
K%
3.3%
3.9%
4.5%
5.2%
5.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
3
Exit velocity85.7
26
Hard-hit%19.4%
2
xBA0.303
33
xSLG0.395
12
xwOBA0.307
55
-27 vs proj
BB%5.1%
15
Bat speed61.4
1
K%4.2%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
84
Arm Strength88.4 · 2B
59
Outs Above Avg12.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs9.6 · 2B
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 2B
66
SB Success Rate87.5% · 2B
72
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
33
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.8% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions65.2% · rebadged research
41
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
52
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
2
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
69
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
39
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| Sample | 662 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 624 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.334 | 0.303 to 0.378 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.104 | 0.078 to 0.200 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 1.0% to 4.0% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 22.5% | 18.2% to 30.1% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 4.6% | 3.3% to 11.2% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 4.8% | 2.7% to 8.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.307 | 0.285 to 0.362 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
977 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.256 |
| K% | 5.2% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 1.2% |
vs RHP
2745 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.293 |
| K% | 3.3% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |