Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Urías, Luis
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
59
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.308 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.302 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 11% |
xwOBA
0.260
0.282
0.307
0.332
0.354
wOBA
0.246
0.302
0.365
0.427
0.484
ISO
0.086
0.121
0.160
0.198
0.233
K%
13.3%
15.1%
17.2%
19.3%
21.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.5 · 2B
63
Regression applied
Range Runs0.7 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.8 · 2B
4
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.0% · rebadged research
93
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research
84
Correct Decisions77.5% · rebadged research
99
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
258 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 384 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.288 | 0.248 to 0.350 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.117 | 0.064 to 0.227 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% | 3.3% | 1.7% to 6.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 29.9% | 24.4% to 42.1% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 18.5% | 16.2% to 24.8% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 5.9% to 12.7% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.248 | 0.219 to 0.296 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
587 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.212 |
| K% | 13.1% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |
vs RHP
1606 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.212 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |