Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Kiner-Falefa, Isiah
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team BOS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
19
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.297 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.264
0.277
0.290
0.304
0.316
wOBA
0.275
0.294
0.317
0.339
0.359
ISO
0.061
0.075
0.091
0.107
0.121
K%
14.6%
15.9%
17.4%
18.8%
20.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
12
Exit velocity80.8
4
Hard-hit%25.3%
7
xBA0.308
37
xSLG0.384
9
xwOBA0.297
45
+19 vs proj
BB%9.9%
68
+58 vs proj
Bat speed65.1
8
K%14.4%
91
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
23
Arm Strength80.1 · 2B
4
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs5.7 · 2B
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate77.8% · 2B
43
Sprint Speed27.5 · 2B
50
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions61.8% · rebadged research
14
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · borderline
10
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
60
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
73
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
19
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
108 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.037 |
| Sample | 202 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 511 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.280 | 0.255 to 0.320 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.093 | 0.077 to 0.185 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 1.8% | 0.6% to 3.9% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.3% | 24.9% to 38.3% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 18.0% | 15.0% to 23.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 4.5% | 3.0% to 7.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.260 to 0.361 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
1002 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
2573 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.226 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 3.5% |
| Barrel | 1.3% |