Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Dubón, Mauricio
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.295
0.307
0.319
0.329
wOBA
0.328
0.343
0.359
0.375
0.390
ISO
0.121
0.133
0.146
0.159
0.171
K%
11.5%
12.4%
13.6%
14.7%
15.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27
Exit velocity86.1
28
Hard-hit%32.0%
22
xBA0.320
48
xSLG0.467
34
xwOBA0.316
60
+37 vs proj
BB%6.4%
23
Bat speed67.0
19
K%14.1%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.2 · LF
95
Arm Strength97.2 · LF
81
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs5.6 · LF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · LF
47
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
37
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.3% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.370 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
209 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.036 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.079 |
| Sample | 391 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 451 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.280 | 0.253 to 0.320 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.097 | 0.078 to 0.190 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 1.0% to 4.1% | +/- 1.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 28.3% | 21.7% to 35.1% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 12.3% | 11.0% to 19.4% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 5.0% | 3.4% to 8.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.280 | 0.237 to 0.337 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
656 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 10.4% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
1555 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |