Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Benintendi, Andrew
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CWS
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.311 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.295
0.311
0.326
0.340
wOBA
0.286
0.306
0.328
0.350
0.370
ISO
0.111
0.127
0.146
0.164
0.181
K%
20.4%
21.7%
23.2%
24.7%
26.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.4%
23
-19 vs proj
Barrel%7.4%
78
+40 vs proj
Bat speed67.2
22
Exit velocity87.6
39
Hard-hit%47.7%
83
+60 vs proj
K%28.1%
21
-58 vs proj
xBA0.356
78
xSLG0.605
76
xwOBA0.311
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · LF
Limited
Outs Above Avg-0.4 · LF · small sample regression applied
29
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.8 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · DH
27
Sprint Speed26.4 · DH
25
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.7% · rebadged research
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.5% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
58
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · insufficient sample
18
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.247 · validated thin sample
98
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
47
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| Sample | 203 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 498 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.306 | 0.274 to 0.355 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.125 | 0.090 to 0.210 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 3.0% to 6.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.1% | 27.2% to 40.2% | +/- 6.5% |
| K% | 17.3% | 14.9% to 22.7% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 5.6% to 10.8% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.271 | 0.233 to 0.310 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
1260 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 5.0% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
3747 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.265 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 7.4% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |