Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Garver, Mitch

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.314 xwOBA
Range
0.239 to 0.357
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Impact slugger Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
63
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
59
Defense4 metrics
22
Speed1 metrics
7
Plate skills10 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.308
xwOBA current pace0.308
xwOBA rolling p500.308
Observed weight40%
xwOBA
0.268 0.287 0.308 0.329 0.349
wOBA
0.300 0.324 0.350 0.377 0.401
ISO
0.114 0.136 0.159 0.183 0.204
K%
26.4% 28.3% 30.5% 32.6% 34.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
36 -27 vs proj
Exit velocity90.8
84
Hard-hit%49.3%
89 +25 vs proj
xBA0.325
56
xSLG0.545
63
xwOBA0.308
50
BB%13.8%
93 +23 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
58
K%33.8%
5
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.1 · C
61
Catcher Throwing-1.3 · C
14
Framing Runs-3.4 · C
14
Pop Time2.1 · C
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · C
7
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2% · rebadged research
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5% · rebadged research
58
Correct Decisions68.8% · rebadged research
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
55
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
80
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Garver, Mitch · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.308 2026-07-05: 0.3072026-07-06: 0.3072026-07-07: 0.3072026-07-08: 0.3072026-07-09: 0.3062026-07-10: 0.3062026-07-11: 0.3062026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3042026-07-14: 0.3082026-07-15: 0.3082026-07-16: 0.308 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

57 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Garver, Mitch · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 32% of plotted batted ballsPull 32%Center field third: 61% of plotted batted ballsCenter 61%Right field third: 7% of plotted batted ballsOppo 7% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 36.02026-03-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 35.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 54.02026-03-19 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 26.02026-03-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 0.02026-03-22 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 36.02026-03-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.1 / LA 31.02026-03-30 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -11.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA -6.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 1.02026-04-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 72.8 / LA 36.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 75.3 / LA 55.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 1.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 35.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 45.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 64.1 / LA -62.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 110.5 / LA 19.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -5.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 37.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -41.02026-04-22 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 18.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -6.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 34.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 53.02026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -5.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.0 / LA -62.02026-04-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -7.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · popup · EV 88.7 / LA 61.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 37.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.5 / LA 71.02026-05-02 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 14.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 47.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -10.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 80.9 / LA 12.02026-05-09 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 64.0 / LA -54.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 42.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 41.02026-05-14 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 33.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 51.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 47.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 39.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.6 / LA -6.02026-05-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 32.02026-05-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 14.02026-05-24 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 70.6 / LA 16.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 2.02026-05-26 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 5.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.2 / LA 66.02026-05-26 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 5.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 81.7 / LA 25.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 32.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 38.02026-06-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 3.02026-06-05 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 59.02026-06-05 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 72.3 / LA 41.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 10.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Garver, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 35%35%Zone contact: 76%76%Contact: 65%65%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.253 vs 0.218 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.006
wOBA Δ+0.036
Sample145 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances406----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3140.239 to 0.357+/- 0.059
ISO0.1650.098 to 0.239+/- 0.070
Barrel%5.8%3.5% to 8.6%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%42.1%35.2% to 52.0%+/- 8.4%
K%29.8%24.0% to 35.8%+/- 5.9%
BB%10.3%7.7% to 14.1%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2680.208 to 0.316+/- 0.054
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

903 career PA

xwOBA0.253
K%19.0%
BB%10.6%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHP

1665 career PA

xwOBA0.218
K%25.3%
BB%8.3%
Barrel4.4%