Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Garver, Mitch

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.314 xwOBA
Range
0.239 to 0.357
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Impact slugger Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.308
xwOBA current pace0.300
xwOBA rolling p500.306
Observed weight32%
xwOBA
0.261 0.282 0.306 0.329 0.350
wOBA
0.310 0.339 0.371 0.403 0.432
ISO
0.108 0.131 0.158 0.184 0.208
K%
25.3% 27.4% 29.8% 32.1% 34.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%15.5%
95 +27 vs proj
Barrel%3.9%
32 -28 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
Exit velocity91.6
89
Hard-hit%54.7%
97 +37 vs proj
K%33.0%
4
xBA0.283
17
xSLG0.493
44
xwOBA0.300
41
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
45
Catcher Throwing-0.3 · C
28
Framing Runs-2.1 · C
19
Pop Time2.1 · C
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
9
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.1% · rebadged research
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6% · rebadged research
45
Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research
75
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
53
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
90
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
80
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Garver, Mitch · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3022026-05-19: 0.2862026-05-21: 0.2862026-05-23: 0.3022026-05-24: 0.3022026-05-25: 0.3072026-05-26: 0.3072026-05-28: 0.3042026-05-29: 0.3042026-05-30: 0.3042026-05-31: 0.3042026-06-01: 0.300 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

51 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Garver, Mitch · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 31% of plotted batted ballsPull 31%Center field third: 63% of plotted batted ballsCenter 63%Right field third: 6% of plotted batted ballsOppo 6% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 36.02026-03-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 35.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 54.02026-03-19 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 26.02026-03-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA 0.02026-03-22 · sac fly · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 36.02026-03-22 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.1 / LA 31.02026-03-30 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -11.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA -6.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 1.02026-04-08 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 72.8 / LA 36.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 75.3 / LA 55.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 1.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.7 / LA 35.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 45.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 64.1 / LA -62.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 110.5 / LA 19.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 37.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -41.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -5.02026-04-22 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 101.5 / LA 18.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 34.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 53.02026-04-25 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -5.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -6.02026-04-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.1 / LA -7.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.0 / LA -62.02026-04-28 · field out · FC · popup · EV 88.7 / LA 61.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 37.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.5 / LA 71.02026-05-02 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 14.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 47.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -10.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 80.9 / LA 12.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 42.02026-05-09 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 64.0 / LA -54.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 41.02026-05-14 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 33.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 51.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 47.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 39.02026-05-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.6 / LA -6.02026-05-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 32.02026-05-22 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 14.02026-05-24 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 70.6 / LA 16.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 2.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.2 / LA 66.02026-05-26 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 5.02026-05-26 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 5.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 81.7 / LA 25.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Garver, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 44%44%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 35%35%Zone contact: 78%78%Contact: 65%65%Hard hit: 55%55% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.253 vs 0.218 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.014
wOBA Δ+0.057
Sample103 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances406----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3140.239 to 0.357+/- 0.059
ISO0.1650.098 to 0.239+/- 0.070
Barrel%5.8%3.5% to 8.6%+/- 2.5%
Hard-Hit%42.1%35.2% to 52.0%+/- 8.4%
K%29.8%24.0% to 35.8%+/- 5.9%
BB%10.3%7.7% to 14.1%+/- 3.2%
BABIP0.2680.208 to 0.316+/- 0.054
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

903 career PA

xwOBA0.253
K%19.0%
BB%10.6%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHP

1665 career PA

xwOBA0.218
K%25.3%
BB%8.3%
Barrel4.4%