Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Fraley, Jake
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.290 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.260
0.274
0.290
0.306
0.321
wOBA
0.329
0.358
0.390
0.422
0.451
ISO
0.119
0.140
0.163
0.186
0.207
K%
18.1%
20.2%
22.5%
24.9%
27.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.5%
61
+17 vs proj
Barrel%5.7%
60
+36 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
46
Exit velocity84.8
13
Hard-hit%27.3%
9
K%26.7%
28
-22 vs proj
xBA0.294
25
xSLG0.501
47
xwOBA0.277
22
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength91.9 · RF
49
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
Limited
Range Runs-1.1 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · RF
17
Sprint Speed28.4 · RF
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.0% · rebadged research
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions69.0% · rebadged research
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
38
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
22
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
11
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
67 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.102 |
| Sample | 105 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 357 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.288 | 0.263 to 0.335 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.095 to 0.217 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 3.0% | 1.4% to 4.9% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.4% | 25.7% to 40.2% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 21.8% | 16.7% to 28.7% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 6.4% to 11.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.284 | 0.234 to 0.338 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
280 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.213 |
| K% | 15.6% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |
vs RHP
1412 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.236 |
| K% | 15.7% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |