Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Frazier, Adam
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team LAA
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.286 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.242 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.271 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.242
0.256
0.271
0.287
0.301
wOBA
0.318
0.347
0.378
0.410
0.438
ISO
0.089
0.109
0.132
0.155
0.175
K%
18.9%
20.6%
22.3%
24.1%
25.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.1%
81
+56 vs proj
Barrel%1.9%
12
Bat speed61.3
1
Exit velocity81.0
3
Hard-hit%17.2%
1
K%27.1%
25
-45 vs proj
xBA0.286
19
xSLG0.395
15
xwOBA0.242
6
-19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
18
Arm Strength89.2 · 2B
77
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 2B
71
Range Runs-0.0 · 2B
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · 2B
22
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1% · rebadged research
34
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
51
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
67
Mithrandir Stuff+66
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
86
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
58
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
27
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
16
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
64 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.041 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.096 |
| Sample | 107 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 472 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.283 | 0.256 to 0.328 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.119 | 0.087 to 0.209 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 1.1% to 4.2% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 22.6% | 15.0% to 29.5% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 18.6% | 16.5% to 25.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 4.7% to 9.9% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.230 to 0.326 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
916 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.219 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 1.8% |
vs RHP
3517 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.237 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |