Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Conforto, Michael
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
86
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.335 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.329 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.313
0.329
0.345
0.360
wOBA
0.369
0.391
0.416
0.441
0.463
ISO
0.160
0.178
0.198
0.218
0.236
K%
22.5%
24.0%
25.6%
27.3%
28.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
80
+25 vs proj
Exit velocity93.0
96
Hard-hit%49.5%
90
+25 vs proj
xBA0.361
84
xSLG0.673
90
xwOBA0.335
75
BB%10.6%
73
Bat speed70.6
65
K%27.2%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.2 · RF
14
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Arm Runs-0.8 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.0 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · RF
20
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.7% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions72.4% · rebadged research
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · borderline
6
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
60
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.362 · validated
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.420 · validated
1
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
93
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
81 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.088 |
| Sample | 180 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 499 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 15 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.328 | 0.289 to 0.371 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.099 to 0.218 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.9% to 7.7% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.5% | 37.0% to 49.5% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 24.4% | 20.8% to 29.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 9.5% | 6.9% to 13.2% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.220 to 0.318 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
1115 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |
vs RHP
3458 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 9.1% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |