Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Heineman, Tyler
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TOR
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.282 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.208 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.261 |
| Observed weight | 28% |
xwOBA
0.214
0.236
0.261
0.286
0.309
wOBA
0.159
0.186
0.216
0.246
0.273
ISO
0.042
0.072
0.105
0.138
0.168
K%
14.8%
17.2%
19.8%
22.4%
24.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%2.3%
1
-30 vs proj
Barrel%1.2%
6
Bat speed60.2
0
Exit velocity79.6
2
Hard-hit%17.7%
2
K%20.9%
57
xBA0.231
2
xSLG0.300
1
xwOBA0.208
3
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.9 · C
91
Catcher Throwing1.5 · C
84
Framing Runs3.6 · C
91
Pop Time1.9 · C
62
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
18
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.2% · rebadged research
13
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions63.4% · rebadged research
25
Mithrandir Stuff+34
0
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
89
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
9
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
61 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.050 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.042 |
| Sample | 86 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 294 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.258 | 0.202 to 0.327 | +/- 0.062 |
| ISO | 0.103 | 0.051 to 0.224 | +/- 0.087 |
| Barrel% | 1.9% | 0.5% to 5.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 25.9% | 14.7% to 38.0% | +/- 11.7% |
| K% | 18.5% | 15.2% to 28.5% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 4.2% to 10.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.293 | 0.230 to 0.335 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
160 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.144 |
| K% | 9.1% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
356 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.135 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |