Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Mateo, Jorge
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.287 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.371 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.262
0.286
0.314
0.341
0.365
wOBA
0.426
0.456
0.489
0.523
0.553
ISO
0.117
0.142
0.169
0.196
0.220
K%
20.4%
22.7%
25.3%
27.8%
30.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.9%
28
Barrel%7.9%
82
+54 vs proj
Bat speed70.9
70
Exit velocity88.8
53
Hard-hit%46.4%
77
+42 vs proj
K%24.8%
35
xBA0.427
100
xSLG0.732
94
xwOBA0.371
89
+58 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength94.1 · SS
93
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
81
Range Runs0.8 · SS
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · SS
59
Bolts15.0 · SS
84
SB Success Rate87.5% · SS
74
Sprint Speed30.1 · SS
99
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3% · rebadged research
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
77
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
38
Mithrandir Stuff+74
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
61
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
87
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.388 · validated
2
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
59 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.081 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.199 |
| Sample | 101 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 270 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.198 to 0.338 | +/- 0.070 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.073 to 0.215 | +/- 0.071 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 1.0% to 6.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.5% | 28.9% to 46.7% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 26.5% | 19.6% to 32.8% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.0% to 9.3% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.200 to 0.335 | +/- 0.067 |
vs LHP
574 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.194 |
| K% | 16.6% |
| BB% | 3.9% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |
vs RHP
961 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.177 |
| K% | 18.1% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |