Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Walton, Donovan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team ATH
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.292 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.326 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.275
0.292
0.311
0.330
0.347
wOBA
0.337
0.355
0.375
0.395
0.412
ISO
0.126
0.145
0.167
0.188
0.207
K%
12.3%
14.7%
17.3%
20.0%
22.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
28
Exit velocity85.2
21
Hard-hit%32.5%
25
xBA0.308
37
xSLG0.469
39
xwOBA0.326
74
+26 vs proj
BB%10.5%
75
+26 vs proj
Bat speed65.4
9
K%16.4%
84
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
57
Arm Strength83.2 · 2B
17
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 2B
3
Range Runs-6.4 · 2B
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 2B
24
SB Success Rate33.3% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.4% · rebadged research
94
Correct Decisions71.5% · rebadged research
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
27
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
44
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363 · validated
15
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
87
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
118 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.075 |
| Sample | 275 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 215 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.300 | 0.182 to 0.316 | +/- 0.067 |
| ISO | 0.135 | 0.033 to 0.199 | +/- 0.083 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 0.5% to 5.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.6% | 17.9% to 41.0% | +/- 11.6% |
| K% | 19.5% | 8.8% to 30.2% | +/- 10.7% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 3.0% to 13.1% | +/- 5.0% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.147 to 0.319 | +/- 0.086 |
vs LHP
62 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.042 |
| K% | 2.8% |
| BB% | 2.5% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
209 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.047 |
| K% | 2.6% |
| BB% | 2.9% |
| Barrel | 0.6% |