Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026
Ward, Taylor
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SEA
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
53
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.315 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 74% |
xwOBA
0.307
0.317
0.328
0.339
0.349
wOBA
0.300
0.311
0.324
0.337
0.348
ISO
0.089
0.098
0.108
0.118
0.127
K%
20.3%
21.3%
22.3%
23.4%
24.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
25
-52 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
61
Hard-hit%38.4%
51
-25 vs proj
xBA0.325
58
xSLG0.487
46
xwOBA0.333
81
BB%16.3%
99
+31 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
17
K%21.4%
59
+22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
59
Arm Strength92.3 · LF
39
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
25
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-4.4 · LF
2
SB Success Rate40.0% · LF
1
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
50
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 80.9% · rebadged research
99
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.3% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
75
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.259 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample
46
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
67
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
31
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
239 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| Sample | 613 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 615 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 26 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.273 to 0.353 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.178 | 0.130 to 0.249 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.9% to 9.0% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.9% | 36.6% to 49.7% | +/- 6.6% |
| K% | 24.9% | 20.0% to 29.5% | +/- 4.8% |
| BB% | 9.9% | 7.4% to 13.3% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.224 to 0.313 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
747 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.302 |
| K% | 19.7% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |
vs RHP
2229 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 21.9% |
| BB% | 8.8% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |