Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / BAL · 2026

Ward, Taylor

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.334 xwOBA
Range
0.284 to 0.367
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced regular Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.328
xwOBA current pace0.349
xwOBA rolling p500.340
Observed weight56%
xwOBA
0.312 0.325 0.340 0.354 0.367
wOBA
0.317 0.334 0.354 0.373 0.391
ISO
0.101 0.116 0.132 0.147 0.162
K%
19.5% 20.7% 22.2% 23.6% 24.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%19.6%
100 +35 vs proj
Barrel%2.5%
19 -51 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
10
Exit velocity89.0
54
Hard-hit%38.6%
44 -22 vs proj
K%19.9%
62 +28 vs proj
xBA0.332
60
xSLG0.486
41
xwOBA0.349
80
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.9 · LF
6
Arm Strength87.1 · LF
13
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
8
Range Runs-1.2 · LF
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · LF
6
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
53
SB Success Rate33.3% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 83.7% · rebadged research
100
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.7% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions68.7% · rebadged research
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
47
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
30
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated
12
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
21
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Ward, Taylor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3642026-05-19: 0.3622026-05-21: 0.3562026-05-23: 0.3502026-05-24: 0.3502026-05-25: 0.3512026-05-26: 0.3522026-05-28: 0.3472026-05-29: 0.3462026-05-30: 0.3502026-05-31: 0.3512026-06-01: 0.349 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

158 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Ward, Taylor · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 19% of plotted batted ballsOppo 19% LF 333 CF 400 RF 318 2026-03-19 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -4.02026-03-19 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA -6.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 94.2 / LA 66.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 37.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.4 / LA -3.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 27.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.3 / LA 64.02026-03-26 · field out · KC · popup · EV 74.4 / LA 62.02026-03-28 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 89.3 / LA 10.02026-03-29 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 74.8 / LA 19.02026-03-29 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -23.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -4.02026-03-30 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 74.3 / LA 24.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 45.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA -1.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 38.02026-03-31 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 15.02026-03-31 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -22.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.8 / LA 17.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 12.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 6.02026-04-01 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 50.02026-04-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 15.02026-04-03 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 17.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 0.02026-04-04 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.0 / LA 70.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 49.8 / LA -36.02026-04-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA -4.02026-04-05 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 77.9 / LA 26.02026-04-06 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 16.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 98.5 / LA 21.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · popup · EV 79.2 / LA 74.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · popup · EV 69.3 / LA 56.02026-04-07 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 93.8 / LA 18.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 32.02026-04-08 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 69.8 / LA 32.02026-04-08 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 12.02026-04-08 · double · SV · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 14.02026-04-08 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 18.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 8.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 42.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 52.02026-04-10 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 14.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 6.02026-04-12 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA 0.02026-04-12 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 67.7 / LA -29.02026-04-12 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 70.7 / LA 34.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 4.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -34.02026-04-14 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 1.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 53.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 35.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -12.02026-04-14 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 53.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 31.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -7.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 44.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 27.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 40.02026-04-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 10.02026-04-16 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA -6.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 27.02026-04-17 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 5.02026-04-17 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 45.02026-04-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 21.02026-04-18 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -8.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -4.02026-04-18 · fielders choice · CU · ground_ball · EV 109.5 / LA -20.02026-04-19 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 8.02026-04-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 22.02026-04-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 25.02026-04-19 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 14.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 78.4 / LA 29.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 49.02026-04-20 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -26.02026-04-20 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 22.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 39.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 3.02026-04-21 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA -29.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · popup · EV 73.9 / LA 66.02026-04-22 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 21.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -15.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -9.02026-04-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 12.02026-04-24 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA -1.02026-04-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 4.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 68.7 / LA 42.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 61.0 / LA -56.02026-04-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 8.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 34.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.2 / LA 31.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 54.5 / LA -72.02026-04-28 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 14.02026-04-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -22.02026-04-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 72.8 / LA -5.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 21.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 27.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -2.02026-05-02 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 79.9 / LA 17.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -9.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 25.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 42.02026-05-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 48.8 / LA -46.02026-05-05 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.7 / LA -21.02026-05-05 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 59.5 / LA -42.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -1.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.5 / LA -27.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 54.6 / LA -73.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -12.02026-05-09 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 73.3 / LA -1.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 4.02026-05-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.9 / LA -7.02026-05-11 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 71.0 / LA -12.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 48.02026-05-12 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 24.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 3.02026-05-13 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 8.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.3 / LA 38.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA 2.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -19.02026-05-15 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -21.02026-05-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 0.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 83.6 / LA 38.02026-05-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 16.02026-05-16 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 103.5 / LA 7.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 15.02026-05-18 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 14.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 40.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -16.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 27.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 33.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 22.02026-05-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 8.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.8 / LA 64.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.2 / LA 67.02026-05-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 16.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 72.8 / LA 51.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 2.02026-05-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.5 / LA 10.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 78.9 / LA 52.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 89.4 / LA 7.02026-05-24 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 35.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -14.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 24.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 37.02026-05-25 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 93.1 / LA 9.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 26.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 31.02026-05-26 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 34.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.0 / LA 70.02026-05-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 13.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 29.02026-05-31 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -11.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 50.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA -2.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Ward, Taylor · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 29.4° Length 6.9 ft Ideal path 57% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Ward, Taylor · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 6.5° Direction -0.1° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Ward, Taylor · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 68.1 mph Hard swing rate 2% Whiff / swing 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Ward, Taylor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 12%12%Whiff: 16%16%Zone contact: 91%91%Contact: 84%84%Hard hit: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.015
wOBA Δ+0.020
Sample276 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances615----
Home Runs25----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3340.284 to 0.367+/- 0.042
ISO0.1850.135 to 0.259+/- 0.062
Barrel%6.6%4.8% to 8.9%+/- 2.0%
Hard-Hit%43.9%36.6% to 49.7%+/- 6.6%
K%24.9%20.0% to 29.5%+/- 4.8%
BB%9.9%7.4% to 13.3%+/- 3.0%
BABIP0.2810.234 to 0.328+/- 0.047
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

747 career PA

xwOBA0.302
K%19.7%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHP

2229 career PA

xwOBA0.278
K%21.9%
BB%8.8%
Barrel6.3%