Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Correa, Carlos
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status IL-60
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
71
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.333 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.364 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.346 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.316
0.330
0.346
0.362
0.376
wOBA
0.328
0.352
0.379
0.406
0.430
ISO
0.121
0.141
0.163
0.184
0.204
K%
16.5%
17.9%
19.5%
21.1%
22.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
72
Exit velocity89.1
58
Hard-hit%40.2%
54
-17 vs proj
xBA0.367
87
xSLG0.583
70
xwOBA0.364
88
+19 vs proj
BB%13.4%
90
+47 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
78
K%18.1%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
31
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
85
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
70
Range Runs0.8 · SS
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · SS
58
Sprint Speed27.2 · SS
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions62.5% · rebadged research
18
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
10
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
50
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342 · validated
44
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
102 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.048 |
| Sample | 149 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 543 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.331 | 0.298 to 0.372 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.167 | 0.121 to 0.250 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.0% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.5% | 42.7% to 51.8% | +/- 4.6% |
| K% | 18.9% | 16.0% to 24.6% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.9% to 11.5% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.268 to 0.343 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
1580 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.302 |
| K% | 15.1% |
| BB% | 8.9% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |
vs RHP
4250 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.282 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |