Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Arcia, Orlando
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team MIN
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.273 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.269 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.272 |
| Observed weight | 16% |
xwOBA
0.227
0.248
0.272
0.296
0.317
wOBA
0.380
0.428
0.480
0.533
0.580
ISO
0.063
0.097
0.135
0.173
0.207
K%
15.2%
17.6%
20.3%
23.0%
25.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.4 · 2B · small sample regression applied
65
Regression applied
Range Runs0.9 · 2B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate0.0% · 2B
Limited
Sprint Speed25.4 · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8% · rebadged research
14
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.0% · rebadged research
12
Correct Decisions62.7% · rebadged research
18
Mithrandir Stuff+55
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
73
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
53
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
36
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
38
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
10
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
26 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 380 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 11 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.270 | 0.229 to 0.330 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.132 | 0.068 to 0.238 | +/- 0.085 |
| Barrel% | 3.9% | 2.3% to 7.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.7% | 32.3% to 50.2% | +/- 8.9% |
| K% | 21.7% | 17.3% to 29.1% | +/- 5.9% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 4.5% to 9.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.261 | 0.202 to 0.321 | +/- 0.059 |
vs LHP
943 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.254 |
| K% | 17.8% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.8% |
vs RHP
2829 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |