Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.277 vs 0.240 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Kepler, Max
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
27
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.322 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 15% |
xwOBA
0.276
0.293
0.311
0.329
0.346
wOBA
0.144
0.185
0.232
0.278
0.319
ISO
0.087
0.112
0.140
0.168
0.193
K%
18.5%
20.4%
22.5%
24.6%
26.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs0.8 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 38.5% · rebadged research
0
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 37.5% · rebadged research
3
Correct Decisions47.6% · rebadged research
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
52
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline65
1
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 496 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.316 | 0.279 to 0.354 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.097 to 0.219 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 4.3% to 7.8% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.4% | 37.2% to 47.4% | +/- 5.1% |
| K% | 21.2% | 17.7% to 26.5% | +/- 4.4% |
| BB% | 8.3% | 6.5% to 11.0% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.236 to 0.316 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
1201 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.240 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
3718 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 6.1% |