Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CLE · 2026
Hedges, Austin
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CLE
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.252 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.274 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.258 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.207
0.231
0.258
0.285
0.310
wOBA
0.291
0.321
0.353
0.386
0.416
ISO
0.044
0.073
0.105
0.137
0.165
K%
19.4%
21.7%
24.3%
26.8%
29.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.4%
82
+49 vs proj
Barrel%0.0%
1
Bat speed66.0
12
Exit velocity84.8
13
Hard-hit%34.8%
28
K%18.6%
70
+49 vs proj
xBA0.306
33
xSLG0.363
8
xwOBA0.274
19
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
48
Catcher Throwing-0.6 · C
19
Framing Runs1.5 · C
67
Pop Time1.9 · C
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.4 · C
2
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
77
Correct Decisions71.0% · rebadged research
88
Mithrandir Stuff+74
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · borderline
84
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
33
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated
31
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
88
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
63 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.029 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.108 |
| Sample | 97 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 319 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.245 | 0.194 to 0.333 | +/- 0.070 |
| ISO | 0.106 | 0.033 to 0.206 | +/- 0.086 |
| Barrel% | 2.1% | 0.3% to 5.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.3% | 20.6% to 44.9% | +/- 12.1% |
| K% | 28.0% | 22.6% to 35.9% | +/- 6.6% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.3% to 10.8% | +/- 3.3% |
| BABIP | 0.263 | 0.156 to 0.325 | +/- 0.085 |
vs LHP
829 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.154 |
| K% | 18.5% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
1859 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.149 |
| K% | 18.2% |
| BB% | 4.4% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |