Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Polanco, Jorge
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.270 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
xwOBA
0.288
0.304
0.322
0.339
0.355
wOBA
0.255
0.287
0.322
0.358
0.390
ISO
0.098
0.120
0.146
0.171
0.194
K%
16.5%
18.3%
20.2%
22.2%
24.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
48
Barrel%3.8%
31
-33 vs proj
Bat speed67.6
24
Exit velocity87.2
35
Hard-hit%31.7%
19
-37 vs proj
K%15.2%
86
+30 vs proj
xBA0.273
13
xSLG0.398
16
xwOBA0.270
16
-54 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B · small sample regression applied
59
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.3 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · DH
9
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0% · rebadged research
29
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions60.7% · rebadged research
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
68
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
18
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
60 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.063 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| Sample | 79 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 548 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.299 to 0.378 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.130 to 0.257 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 6.1% | 4.5% to 8.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.2% | 36.3% to 48.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.1% | 17.2% to 26.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.6% to 12.0% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.239 to 0.325 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
1377 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
vs RHP
3361 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |