Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Polanco, Jorge
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
13
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.257 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 31% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.297
0.315
0.332
0.347
wOBA
0.237
0.265
0.296
0.327
0.356
ISO
0.095
0.117
0.141
0.164
0.186
K%
16.5%
18.1%
20.0%
21.9%
23.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
22
-44 vs proj
Exit velocity85.6
22
Hard-hit%28.4%
12
-48 vs proj
xBA0.264
8
xSLG0.370
7
xwOBA0.257
9
-64 vs proj
BB%8.2%
46
Bat speed67.7
25
K%15.5%
85
+26 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
55
Regression applied
Range Runs-0.3 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · DH
18
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions60.7% · rebadged research
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · borderline
6
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
69
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
60 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.076 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.037 |
| Sample | 97 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 548 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 23 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.299 to 0.378 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.163 | 0.130 to 0.257 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 6.1% | 4.5% to 8.6% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.2% | 36.3% to 48.0% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.1% | 17.2% to 26.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.6% to 12.0% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.239 to 0.325 | +/- 0.043 |
vs LHP
1377 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 17.1% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |
vs RHP
3361 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.274 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 6.3% |