Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SD · 2026

Castellanos, Nick

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.309 xwOBA
Range
0.285 to 0.362
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced regular Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.315
xwOBA current pace0.285
xwOBA rolling p500.304
Observed weight38%
xwOBA
0.273 0.288 0.304 0.320 0.334
wOBA
0.229 0.252 0.278 0.304 0.327
ISO
0.114 0.135 0.158 0.182 0.203
K%
21.2% 22.9% 24.7% 26.5% 28.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.6%
7
Barrel%5.1%
51
Bat speed68.0
27
Exit velocity88.2
46
Hard-hit%36.6%
36
K%27.0%
26
xBA0.346
71
xSLG0.568
66
xwOBA0.285
27 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · RF
1
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Arm Runs-0.5 · RF
Limited
Range Runs-3.1 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · RF
47
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.0% · rebadged research
8
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
92
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
67
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313 · validated
92
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
17
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Castellanos, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3012026-05-19: 0.3012026-05-21: 0.2832026-05-23: 0.2952026-05-24: 0.2932026-05-25: 0.2912026-05-26: 0.2882026-05-28: 0.2882026-05-29: 0.2862026-05-30: 0.2862026-05-31: 0.2862026-06-01: 0.285 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Nick Castellanos's tools (94) outpace production (77) by 17 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-17.5° Current 38° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

94 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Castellanos, Nick · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 21% of plotted batted ballsPull 21%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsOppo 14% LF 334 CF 396 RF 322 2026-03-15 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -10.02026-03-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -6.02026-03-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 26.02026-03-17 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 43.02026-03-17 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 34.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -19.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball2026-03-20 · field out · ST · popup · EV 90.1 / LA 76.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA -9.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.1 / LA 3.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA 4.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 44.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.7 / LA 7.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 37.02026-03-28 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 84.1 / LA 16.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 81.0 / LA -17.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 79.7 / LA 29.02026-03-31 · force out · SI · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 5.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 89.4 / LA 11.02026-03-31 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA -12.02026-04-05 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 108.7 / LA 16.02026-04-05 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 64.8 / LA 14.02026-04-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.2 / LA 11.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -9.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 67.1 / LA 22.02026-04-06 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 12.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · popup · EV 77.4 / LA 58.02026-04-08 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 26.02026-04-08 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -1.02026-04-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 0.02026-04-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 47.3 / LA -37.02026-04-09 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 10.02026-04-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 12.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 32.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.6 / LA 34.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 42.02026-04-12 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 56.6 / LA -25.02026-04-12 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 40.02026-04-12 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 31.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 46.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA -26.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -16.02026-04-22 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 64.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 30.02026-04-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 3.02026-04-27 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 77.4 / LA 40.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 31.02026-04-29 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 28.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.7 / LA 39.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.4 / LA -22.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -3.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.0 / LA 25.02026-05-03 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 19.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -65.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 4.02026-05-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 11.02026-05-05 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 37.02026-05-05 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 18.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 93.0 / LA 21.02026-05-06 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -37.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 13.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 29.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 42.02026-05-10 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 25.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.5 / LA 10.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 5.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -14.02026-05-14 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 26.8 / LA -25.02026-05-14 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 95.0 / LA 17.02026-05-14 · single · SV · fly_ball · EV 67.6 / LA 33.02026-05-16 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -50.02026-05-16 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 25.02026-05-16 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 75.7 / LA -8.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 59.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA 0.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 42.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 39.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 31.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 25.02026-05-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 10.02026-05-22 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 33.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -32.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 42.02026-05-23 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA -3.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 54.0 / LA -8.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.6 / LA 40.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 30.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 21.02026-05-27 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 11.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA -71.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA -13.02026-05-31 · sac fly · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 36.02026-05-31 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 81.6 / LA 21.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Castellanos, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 40%40%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 80%80%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.024
wOBA Δ-0.031
Sample137 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances583----
Home Runs20----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3090.285 to 0.362+/- 0.039
ISO0.1580.107 to 0.242+/- 0.068
Barrel%5.1%4.1% to 7.9%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%37.9%34.7% to 45.8%+/- 5.6%
K%23.6%19.2% to 28.5%+/- 4.6%
BB%5.4%3.8% to 8.6%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2950.259 to 0.348+/- 0.044
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1640 career PA

xwOBA0.283
K%20.7%
BB%5.6%
Barrel5.1%
vs RHP

5033 career PA

xwOBA0.279
K%20.4%
BB%4.7%
Barrel5.5%