Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026

Grichuk, Randal

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.311 xwOBA
Range
0.271 to 0.357
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced regular Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
86
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
74
Defense4 metrics
51
Speed1 metrics
47
Plate skills10 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.311
xwOBA current pace0.332
xwOBA rolling p500.323
Observed weight57%
xwOBA
0.296 0.309 0.323 0.337 0.350
wOBA
0.351 0.368 0.387 0.406 0.423
ISO
0.186 0.203 0.221 0.239 0.256
K%
18.3% 19.8% 21.5% 23.1% 24.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
86 +18 vs proj
Exit velocity91.1
89
Hard-hit%49.3%
93 +18 vs proj
xBA0.360
88
xSLG0.615
83
xwOBA0.332
79 +19 vs proj
BB%4.4%
10 -16 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
85
K%21.5%
58
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · LF
41
Arm Strength91.3 · LF
28
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
88
Range Runs0.0 · LF
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · LF
47
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.2% · rebadged research
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
47
Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.334 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
14
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
28
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
35
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Grichuk, Randal · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.332 2026-09-13: 0.3322026-09-14: 0.3322026-09-18: 0.3342026-09-19: 0.3322026-09-20: 0.3322026-09-21: 0.3312026-09-22: 0.3312026-09-23: 0.3382026-09-24: 0.3372026-09-25: 0.3372026-09-26: 0.3362026-09-27: 0.332 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Randal Grichuk's tools (86) outpace production (80) by 6 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Chase Rate Problem.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

145 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Grichuk, Randal · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsPull 20%Center field third: 64% of plotted batted ballsCenter 64%Right field third: 16% of plotted batted ballsOppo 16% LF 330 CF 400 RF 335 2026-03-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 8.02026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.9 / LA -17.02026-03-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 55.02026-03-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA -10.02026-03-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 50.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 51.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA -5.02026-03-21 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 30.02026-03-23 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.5 / LA -40.02026-03-23 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 24.02026-03-23 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 37.02026-03-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 30.02026-03-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 51.6 / LA 6.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 30.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 49.6 / LA 24.02026-04-10 · field out · SI · popup · EV 86.8 / LA 68.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 30.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 31.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 8.02026-04-13 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 30.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 53.02026-04-14 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.9 / LA 14.02026-04-18 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 37.02026-04-18 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -10.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 5.02026-04-18 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 17.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -3.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 49.6 / LA 12.02026-04-21 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.8 / LA -28.02026-04-21 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 15.02026-04-22 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -7.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 24.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.9 / LA 53.02026-04-24 · double · ST · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 6.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.8 / LA 9.02026-05-04 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 81.3 / LA 10.02026-05-05 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 71.2 / LA 30.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 108.1 / LA 17.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -32.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 55.02026-05-08 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 110.2 / LA 27.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 7.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 37.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA -27.02026-05-10 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 108.1 / LA 23.02026-05-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 2.02026-05-14 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 24.02026-05-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 89.0 / LA 16.02026-05-14 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -14.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 33.02026-05-15 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 7.02026-05-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 10.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 45.02026-05-20 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 32.02026-05-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 8.02026-05-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA -34.02026-05-26 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 2.02026-05-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 44.9 / LA -60.02026-05-27 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -7.02026-05-27 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 17.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 72.5 / LA 17.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.3 / LA 31.02026-06-05 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 28.02026-06-05 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 32.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.8 / LA 72.02026-06-07 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -2.02026-06-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -20.02026-06-07 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 74.7 / LA 20.02026-06-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -29.02026-06-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 58.0 / LA -48.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 79.1 / LA 62.02026-06-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 36.02026-06-22 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 79.8 / LA -5.02026-06-24 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 31.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 16.02026-07-27 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -2.02026-07-27 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -10.02026-08-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.9 / LA -19.02026-08-04 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.1 / LA -12.02026-08-04 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 17.02026-08-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 37.02026-08-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.3 / LA 0.02026-08-07 · field out · FF · popup · EV 72.3 / LA 71.02026-08-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -7.02026-08-11 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 81.6 / LA 37.02026-08-11 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 97.1 / LA 11.02026-08-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -2.02026-08-13 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 113.0 / LA 15.02026-08-13 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 7.02026-08-13 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 77.7 / LA 30.02026-08-15 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 8.02026-08-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 19.02026-08-16 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 36.02026-08-16 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 109.2 / LA 18.02026-08-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 57.02026-08-17 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 24.02026-08-19 · field out · FC · popup · EV 83.1 / LA 62.02026-08-19 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 29.02026-08-21 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 106.0 / LA 19.02026-08-21 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 73.3 / LA 15.02026-08-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 28.02026-08-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 46.5 / LA -39.02026-08-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 108.2 / LA 7.02026-08-29 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 57.02026-08-31 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 47.02026-09-01 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA -13.02026-09-01 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.6 / LA 11.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 31.02026-09-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA -3.02026-09-05 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 20.02026-09-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 82.3 / LA 34.02026-09-06 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 36.02026-09-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.0 / LA 3.02026-09-09 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 90.6 / LA 12.02026-09-09 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 4.02026-09-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 44.02026-09-10 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 103.0 / LA 10.02026-09-11 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 12.02026-09-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 9.02026-09-11 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.4 / LA 39.02026-09-12 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 31.02026-09-12 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA -12.02026-09-17 · field out · FC · popup · EV 87.1 / LA 63.02026-09-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.0 / LA 49.02026-09-17 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA -33.02026-09-18 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 22.02026-09-18 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 108.1 / LA -5.02026-09-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 53.02026-09-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 66.7 / LA -20.02026-09-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -6.02026-09-20 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 20.02026-09-20 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 82.2 / LA 39.02026-09-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 38.02026-09-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 16.02026-09-22 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 29.02026-09-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 109.7 / LA 17.02026-09-22 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 1.02026-09-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -48.02026-09-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 51.02026-09-25 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.3 / LA 76.02026-09-25 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 83.0 / LA 17.02026-09-25 · field out · SI · popup · EV 70.0 / LA 60.02026-09-26 · field out · SL · popup · EV 77.8 / LA 70.02026-09-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 47.4 / LA 40.02026-09-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 95.3 / LA 67.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Grichuk, Randal · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 36%36%Whiff: 22%22%Zone contact: 89%89%Contact: 78%78%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.272 vs 0.234 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-35 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.020
wOBA Δ+0.076
Sample297 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances383----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3110.271 to 0.357+/- 0.043
ISO0.1660.112 to 0.251+/- 0.069
Barrel%6.0%4.1% to 8.6%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%43.4%39.6% to 53.1%+/- 6.7%
K%22.2%16.4% to 28.9%+/- 6.2%
BB%6.3%4.9% to 9.5%+/- 2.3%
BABIP0.2820.222 to 0.335+/- 0.056
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1638 career PA

xwOBA0.272
K%14.6%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.4%
vs RHP

3192 career PA

xwOBA0.234
K%16.3%
BB%4.3%
Barrel4.7%