Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Vázquez, Christian
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team HOU
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
7
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.242 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.267 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.236
0.251
0.267
0.283
0.297
wOBA
0.254
0.273
0.295
0.316
0.336
ISO
0.083
0.104
0.127
0.151
0.172
K%
16.5%
18.2%
20.1%
21.9%
23.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
8
Exit velocity84.5
13
Hard-hit%24.0%
6
-16 vs proj
xBA0.249
4
xSLG0.336
3
xwOBA0.242
6
BB%7.9%
41
+18 vs proj
Bat speed63.2
3
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.4 · C
8
Catcher Throwing-1.3 · C
16
Framing Runs2.4 · C
73
Pop Time2.0 · C
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.3 · C
1
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.8% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions63.6% · rebadged research
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
72
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
45
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
48
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
100 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| Sample | 202 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 348 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.274 | 0.221 to 0.314 | +/- 0.046 |
| ISO | 0.109 | 0.053 to 0.215 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.1% to 6.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.1% | 25.3% to 42.9% | +/- 8.8% |
| K% | 20.6% | 17.0% to 29.0% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 4.9% to 10.0% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.268 | 0.196 to 0.317 | +/- 0.061 |
vs LHP
955 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 16.5% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
2561 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.205 |
| K% | 15.1% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |