Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Vázquez, Christian
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team HOU
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.252 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.275 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.241
0.257
0.275
0.293
0.309
wOBA
0.284
0.309
0.336
0.363
0.387
ISO
0.083
0.108
0.135
0.162
0.187
K%
16.4%
18.3%
20.4%
22.5%
24.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
46
+23 vs proj
Barrel%2.2%
16
Bat speed62.9
3
Exit velocity84.3
11
Hard-hit%23.8%
5
K%17.5%
77
+18 vs proj
xBA0.258
7
xSLG0.348
6
xwOBA0.252
8
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.6 · C
21
Catcher Throwing0.9 · C
74
Framing Runs1.9 · C
79
Pop Time2.0 · C
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.1 · C
0
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.5% · rebadged research
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research
26
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
66
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
78
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
76
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
25
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
94 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.022 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.062 |
| Sample | 137 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 348 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.274 | 0.221 to 0.314 | +/- 0.046 |
| ISO | 0.109 | 0.053 to 0.215 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 2.9% | 1.1% to 6.4% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.1% | 25.3% to 42.9% | +/- 8.8% |
| K% | 20.6% | 17.0% to 29.0% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 4.9% to 10.0% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.268 | 0.196 to 0.317 | +/- 0.061 |
vs LHP
955 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.210 |
| K% | 16.5% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |
vs RHP
2561 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.205 |
| K% | 15.1% |
| BB% | 4.8% |
| Barrel | 1.9% |