Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PIT · 2026

Ozuna, Marcell

Middle-order power profile with real damage

Primary
0.370 xwOBA
Range
0.311 to 0.415
Live Δ
yes
Team PIT Archetype Impact slugger Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
64
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
59
Speed1 metrics
7
Plate skills10 metrics
72
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.362
xwOBA current pace0.313
xwOBA rolling p500.335
Observed weight55%
xwOBA
0.304 0.319 0.335 0.351 0.366
wOBA
0.270 0.287 0.306 0.325 0.342
ISO
0.127 0.143 0.160 0.178 0.194
K%
25.5% 26.8% 28.3% 29.8% 31.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
46 -37 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
70
Hard-hit%39.9%
53 -33 vs proj
xBA0.347
76
xSLG0.628
83
xwOBA0.313
57 -37 vs proj
BB%8.9%
53 -24 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
79
K%30.1%
15 -19 vs proj
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · DH
7
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5% · rebadged research
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions67.3% · rebadged research
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · borderline
83
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · insufficient sample
91
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
81
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
70
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
56
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
79
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Ozuna, Marcell · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.313 2026-07-05: 0.3112026-07-06: 0.3112026-07-07: 0.3112026-07-08: 0.3112026-07-09: 0.3112026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3122026-07-12: 0.3122026-07-13: 0.3092026-07-14: 0.3132026-07-15: 0.3132026-07-16: 0.313 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

139 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Ozuna, Marcell · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsPull 13%Center field third: 71% of plotted batted ballsCenter 71%Right field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsOppo 17% LF 325 CF 399 RF 320 2026-03-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.1 / LA 18.02026-03-16 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 23.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 30.02026-03-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA -57.02026-03-17 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 83.0 / LA 18.02026-03-17 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 87.0 / LA -6.02026-03-18 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 13.02026-03-18 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA -8.02026-03-20 · force out · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -3.02026-03-21 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -20.02026-03-21 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -7.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.7 / LA 16.02026-03-21 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.3 / LA 74.02026-03-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 11.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 71.0 / LA 61.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 17.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · popup · EV 89.9 / LA 62.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · popup · EV 76.3 / LA 74.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 2.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 36.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 81.6 / LA 19.02026-03-28 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 29.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 36.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA -4.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball2026-03-31 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.1 / LA 55.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 52.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 30.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 22.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA -8.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 82.1 / LA 73.02026-04-04 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.0 / LA -9.02026-04-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.6 / LA -44.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 33.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.5 / LA 72.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 1.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 44.3 / LA 30.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 47.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 16.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 42.02026-04-11 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -17.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 21.02026-04-12 · field out · ST · popup · EV 72.4 / LA 79.02026-04-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 18.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -2.02026-04-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.4 / LA 24.02026-04-14 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 14.02026-04-14 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -2.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 21.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · popup · EV 72.8 / LA 71.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 16.02026-04-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 20.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 19.02026-04-16 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 109.6 / LA 32.02026-04-16 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.1 / LA -2.02026-04-17 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.8 / LA 26.02026-04-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 16.02026-04-17 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 79.9 / LA 23.02026-04-17 · field out · SI · popup · EV 50.6 / LA 56.02026-04-18 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.9 / LA 24.02026-04-18 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.9 / LA -4.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.5 / LA -19.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · popup · EV 75.8 / LA 56.02026-04-19 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.2 / LA 23.02026-04-19 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 97.4 / LA 9.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA -41.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · popup · EV 89.3 / LA 62.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 48.02026-04-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 89.1 / LA 14.02026-04-23 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 28.02026-04-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 37.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.0 / LA 39.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 10.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 93.7 / LA 76.02026-04-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 0.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 8.02026-04-27 · field out · ST · popup · EV 79.1 / LA 57.02026-04-27 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -15.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -15.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 55.8 / LA -4.02026-04-29 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA 10.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 61.9 / LA 2.02026-04-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 89.9 / LA 39.02026-05-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.5 / LA 26.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.0 / LA 59.02026-05-01 · force out · SI · ground_ball2026-05-02 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 11.02026-05-02 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 10.02026-05-02 · single · EP · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 33.02026-05-03 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 75.0 / LA 12.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 4.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 36.02026-05-05 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 39.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 48.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 48.02026-05-06 · field out · SV · popup · EV 79.7 / LA 66.02026-05-06 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 14.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 46.02026-05-08 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 76.4 / LA 17.02026-05-08 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 26.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 49.02026-05-09 · field out · EP · line_drive · EV 91.2 / LA 5.02026-05-09 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 28.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 31.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 57.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 76.0 / LA 5.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.0 / LA 13.02026-05-12 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA 1.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 31.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.1 / LA 18.02026-05-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 18.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · popup · EV 85.9 / LA 70.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 75.0 / LA 37.02026-05-15 · double play · SI · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 21.02026-05-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 109.5 / LA 24.02026-05-19 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -19.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -28.02026-05-21 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.6 / LA 10.02026-05-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 4.02026-05-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.6 / LA 1.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA -16.02026-05-23 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 16.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 2.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -20.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 14.02026-05-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 75.6 / LA 49.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 18.02026-05-27 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 84.9 / LA 20.02026-05-27 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.4 / LA 52.02026-06-05 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 18.02026-06-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball2026-06-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 80.2 / LA 27.02026-06-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA -8.02026-06-07 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -32.02026-06-26 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 4.02026-06-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 28.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -14.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 92.6 / LA 22.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Ozuna, Marcell · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.8 mph Hard swing rate 33% Whiff / swing 28% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Ozuna, Marcell · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 82%82%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.057
wOBA Δ-0.064
Sample269 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances577----
Home Runs27----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3700.311 to 0.415+/- 0.052
ISO0.2110.155 to 0.289+/- 0.067
Barrel%7.6%5.1% to 9.9%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%48.1%41.3% to 55.1%+/- 6.9%
K%25.5%21.1% to 30.2%+/- 4.5%
BB%11.2%9.5% to 14.5%+/- 2.5%
BABIP0.3100.264 to 0.353+/- 0.045
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1370 career PA

xwOBA0.302
K%21.3%
BB%12.1%
Barrel5.8%
vs RHP

4717 career PA

xwOBA0.319
K%22.0%
BB%9.9%
Barrel7.1%