Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-37 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Stanton, Giancarlo
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYY
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 37
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
88
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.326 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.288
0.306
0.325
0.344
0.361
wOBA
0.315
0.343
0.374
0.405
0.433
ISO
0.148
0.171
0.197
0.222
0.245
K%
25.9%
28.1%
30.5%
33.0%
35.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%15.3%
100
Exit velocity95.4
100
Hard-hit%47.9%
86
xBA0.361
85
xSLG0.688
92
xwOBA0.326
68
BB%5.4%
16
-34 vs proj
Bat speed77.4
100
K%29.7%
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.8 · DH
1
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
51
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
24
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
60
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
16
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308 · validated
94
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
72 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| Sample | 111 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 410 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 25 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.292 to 0.386 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.211 | 0.156 to 0.296 | +/- 0.070 |
| Barrel% | 9.7% | 7.5% to 12.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 51.2% | 42.6% to 58.1% | +/- 7.8% |
| K% | 32.9% | 25.4% to 38.2% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.6% to 12.8% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.265 | 0.202 to 0.307 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
1191 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 22.5% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |
vs RHP
3670 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 26.9% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 9.1% |