Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-37 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Stanton, Giancarlo
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team NYY
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 37
Status IL-10
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.326 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.288
0.306
0.325
0.344
0.361
wOBA
0.315
0.343
0.374
0.405
0.433
ISO
0.148
0.171
0.197
0.222
0.245
K%
25.9%
28.1%
30.5%
33.0%
35.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.4%
16
-29 vs proj
Barrel%15.3%
100
Bat speed77.4
100
Exit velocity95.4
100
Hard-hit%47.9%
84
K%29.7%
13
xBA0.361
82
xSLG0.688
90
xwOBA0.326
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.8 · DH
1
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1% · rebadged research
50
Correct Decisions65.1% · rebadged research
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
21
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293 · validated thin sample
14
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.309 · validated
93
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
72 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| Sample | 111 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 410 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 25 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.292 to 0.386 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.211 | 0.156 to 0.296 | +/- 0.070 |
| Barrel% | 9.7% | 7.5% to 12.4% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 51.2% | 42.6% to 58.1% | +/- 7.8% |
| K% | 32.9% | 25.4% to 38.2% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 6.6% to 12.8% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.265 | 0.202 to 0.307 | +/- 0.052 |
vs LHP
1191 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 22.5% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |
vs RHP
3670 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 26.9% |
| BB% | 6.8% |
| Barrel | 9.1% |