Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026

Freeman, Freddie

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.362 xwOBA
Range
0.318 to 0.413
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced regular Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
84
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
79
Defense2 metrics
73
Speed2 metrics
15
Plate skills10 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.357
xwOBA current pace0.383
xwOBA rolling p500.374
Observed weight66%
xwOBA
0.349 0.361 0.374 0.388 0.400
wOBA
0.365 0.379 0.395 0.411 0.425
ISO
0.163 0.176 0.190 0.205 0.218
K%
14.8% 15.8% 16.9% 18.0% 19.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
82
Exit velocity90.6
81
Hard-hit%45.5%
77
xBA0.359
83
xSLG0.617
81
xwOBA0.383
97
BB%11.7%
82 +20 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
41
K%15.9%
84
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
77
Range Runs1.8 · 1B
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
22
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.1% · rebadged research
93
Correct Decisions72.9% · rebadged research
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
9
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
95
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.404 · insufficient sample
0
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
27
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Freeman, Freddie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.383 2026-07-05: 0.3892026-07-06: 0.3912026-07-07: 0.3902026-07-08: 0.3862026-07-09: 0.3832026-07-10: 0.3862026-07-11: 0.3862026-07-12: 0.3852026-07-13: 0.3852026-07-14: 0.3832026-07-15: 0.3832026-07-16: 0.383 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

211 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Freeman, Freddie · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 17% of plotted batted ballsPull 17%Center field third: 70% of plotted batted ballsCenter 70%Right field third: 13% of plotted batted ballsOppo 13% LF 330 CF 400 RF 330 2026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -9.02026-03-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 74.9 / LA 1.02026-03-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA -21.02026-03-16 · single · SV · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 0.02026-03-18 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 31.02026-03-18 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 76.5 / LA -19.02026-03-18 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 3.02026-03-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -17.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 88.1 / LA 11.02026-03-20 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 16.02026-03-22 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 16.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 62.8 / LA 3.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 31.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.5 / LA -5.02026-03-24 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 43.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 5.02026-03-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 31.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 31.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA 3.02026-03-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -6.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 30.02026-03-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 39.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 32.02026-03-28 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.8 / LA 11.02026-03-28 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 30.02026-03-28 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.8 / LA 16.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.9 / LA -30.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.2 / LA -10.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · popup · EV 87.6 / LA 73.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -26.02026-03-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 10.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.5 / LA 52.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.2 / LA 30.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA 5.02026-04-01 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -15.02026-04-01 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -5.02026-04-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 28.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA 2.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 55.6 / LA -29.02026-04-03 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 110.0 / LA 41.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 54.02026-04-04 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 22.02026-04-04 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.0 / LA 30.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.1 / LA 37.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 29.02026-04-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 77.1 / LA 48.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -20.02026-04-05 · single · SV · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 13.02026-04-05 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 20.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.1 / LA 8.02026-04-06 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 35.02026-04-06 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 18.02026-04-06 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 28.02026-04-07 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 48.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 30.02026-04-07 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 108.3 / LA -1.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 4.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 54.1 / LA 8.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.9 / LA 3.02026-04-08 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 83.2 / LA 11.02026-04-08 · double play · SL · line_drive · EV 90.0 / LA 12.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.5 / LA 56.02026-04-10 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -14.02026-04-11 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 110.3 / LA 14.02026-04-11 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.0 / LA -16.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 6.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 102.8 / LA 18.02026-04-12 · single · CU · popup · EV 90.6 / LA 69.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 39.02026-04-13 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -7.02026-04-13 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 13.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 21.02026-04-14 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 71.2 / LA -48.02026-04-15 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 108.0 / LA 15.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 42.02026-04-15 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 103.7 / LA 11.02026-04-15 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 8.02026-04-17 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 22.02026-04-17 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 61.4 / LA -22.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 27.02026-04-17 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 7.02026-04-18 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 80.4 / LA 18.02026-04-18 · triple · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 27.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 30.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -21.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -11.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 47.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 83.8 / LA -15.02026-04-22 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 39.02026-04-22 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -7.02026-04-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.8 / LA -39.02026-04-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -14.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 83.8 / LA 26.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.7 / LA -11.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 21.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 41.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -5.02026-04-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.9 / LA -69.02026-04-25 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 107.2 / LA 8.02026-04-25 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 46.02026-04-25 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA -59.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -9.02026-04-26 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 79.0 / LA 32.02026-04-27 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.7 / LA 36.02026-04-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -27.02026-04-27 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 21.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -9.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 68.7 / LA -31.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA -18.02026-04-28 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 104.7 / LA 12.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA -38.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 38.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 99.5 / LA 17.02026-04-29 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 4.02026-04-29 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -28.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 11.02026-05-01 · field out · FC · popup · EV 77.9 / LA 59.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 41.02026-05-01 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 109.2 / LA 13.02026-05-02 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 95.5 / LA 17.02026-05-02 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 8.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -24.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -5.02026-05-03 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 106.7 / LA 9.02026-05-03 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 34.02026-05-04 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 9.02026-05-04 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 17.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -2.02026-05-05 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 22.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 29.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA -50.02026-05-06 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 88.2 / LA 20.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -19.02026-05-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 24.02026-05-08 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.3 / LA 41.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 55.3 / LA -46.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 54.02026-05-09 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.1 / LA -72.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.9 / LA 51.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 28.02026-05-10 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -16.02026-05-10 · field out · SL · popup · EV 93.8 / LA 77.02026-05-11 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 100.0 / LA 15.02026-05-11 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 7.02026-05-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA -10.02026-05-12 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -17.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 19.02026-05-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 11.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA 1.02026-05-13 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -26.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 12.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA -4.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.8 / LA -11.02026-05-16 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 87.4 / LA 13.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 2.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 44.02026-05-17 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -3.02026-05-17 · field out · FC · popup · EV 50.9 / LA 42.02026-05-19 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.3 / LA 28.02026-05-19 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 101.6 / LA 33.02026-05-20 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 11.02026-05-20 · double · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 0.02026-05-20 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 51.02026-05-20 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 2.02026-05-23 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 85.4 / LA 7.02026-05-25 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA -5.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 35.02026-05-25 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 28.02026-05-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 0.02026-05-26 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 70.2 / LA 20.02026-05-26 · sac fly · KC · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 23.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 0.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA -36.02026-05-27 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 100.6 / LA 28.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 11.02026-05-31 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 21.02026-05-31 · sac fly · FC · line_drive · EV 94.5 / LA 21.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.0 / LA 3.02026-06-01 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 68.3 / LA -11.02026-06-01 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.8 / LA 56.02026-06-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA 3.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 8.02026-06-04 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 70.9 / LA -16.02026-06-04 · field out · CU · popup · EV 71.4 / LA 68.02026-06-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -23.02026-06-04 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 104.4 / LA 17.02026-06-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 38.02026-06-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 13.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 50.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA 1.02026-06-07 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA 1.02026-06-07 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA 2.02026-06-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 85.1 / LA 22.02026-06-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 2.02026-06-15 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 96.9 / LA 22.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 42.02026-06-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 5.02026-06-22 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 104.2 / LA 32.02026-06-22 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 83.3 / LA 46.02026-06-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 13.02026-06-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 7.02026-06-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.9 / LA -5.02026-06-26 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 33.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 18.02026-06-30 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 28.02026-06-30 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 76.5 / LA 17.02026-06-30 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 80.3 / LA 19.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -14.02026-07-01 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 32.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Freeman, Freddie · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 71.2 mph Hard swing rate 12% Whiff / swing 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Freeman, Freddie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-37 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.022
wOBA Δ+0.033
Sample429 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances628----
Home Runs23----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3620.318 to 0.413+/- 0.047
ISO0.1880.136 to 0.270+/- 0.067
Barrel%6.9%4.8% to 9.2%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%42.3%36.6% to 49.6%+/- 6.5%
K%18.8%16.1% to 24.5%+/- 4.2%
BB%9.5%7.5% to 12.9%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.3250.299 to 0.378+/- 0.040
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

2150 career PA

xwOBA0.304
K%17.9%
BB%6.9%
Barrel6.4%
vs RHP

5043 career PA

xwOBA0.330
K%16.0%
BB%9.8%
Barrel6.4%