Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026

Pham, Tommy

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.315 xwOBA
Range
0.280 to 0.359
Live Δ
--
Team CWS Archetype Balanced regular Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
53
Offense
percentile
Defense1 metrics
71
Plate skills9 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.316
xwOBA current pace0.325
xwOBA rolling p500.317
Observed weight12%
xwOBA
0.280 0.298 0.317 0.337 0.354
wOBA
0.148 0.197 0.252 0.306 0.355
ISO
0.095 0.120 0.147 0.175 0.199
K%
20.1% 22.1% 24.4% 26.6% 28.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
71 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.2% · rebadged research
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.1% · rebadged research
9
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
65
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363 · validated
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

11 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Pham, Tommy · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsPull 18%Center field third: 55% of plotted batted ballsCenter 55%Right field third: 27% of plotted batted ballsOppo 27% LF 330 CF 400 RF 335 2026-04-13 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 4.02026-04-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA -1.02026-04-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA -47.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 25.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 37.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 46.02026-09-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -23.02026-09-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.3 / LA 7.02026-09-18 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 11.02026-09-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 12.02026-09-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -3.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Pham, Tommy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 52%52%Chase: 22%22%Whiff: 31%31%Zone contact: 81%81%Contact: 69%69%Hard hit: 57%57% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Age-38 season adds a little downside to the power band.
hitter
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances488----
Home Runs12----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3150.280 to 0.359+/- 0.039
ISO0.1390.105 to 0.221+/- 0.058
Barrel%5.2%2.8% to 7.7%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%42.6%38.0% to 49.9%+/- 6.0%
K%21.1%18.0% to 27.2%+/- 4.6%
BB%8.8%6.7% to 11.5%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2990.260 to 0.340+/- 0.040
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1411 career PA

xwOBA0.291
K%17.6%
BB%9.2%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHP

3672 career PA

xwOBA0.263
K%19.0%
BB%7.2%
Barrel3.5%