Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-40 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Santana, Carlos
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 40
Status IL-60
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.302 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.187 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.284 |
| Observed weight | 16% |
xwOBA
0.243
0.262
0.284
0.305
0.325
wOBA
0.148
0.188
0.233
0.277
0.317
ISO
0.089
0.115
0.144
0.173
0.199
K%
15.9%
17.6%
19.5%
21.4%
23.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.4 · 1B · small sample regression applied
19
Regression applied
Range Runs-1.9 · 1B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.7 · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2% · rebadged research
82
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
57
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
73
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
52
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
91
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
28 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 512 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.299 | 0.267 to 0.360 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.147 | 0.108 to 0.238 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 3.9% | 2.5% to 6.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.4% | 30.2% to 43.6% | +/- 6.7% |
| K% | 16.9% | 14.3% to 22.1% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 10.4% | 7.8% to 13.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.264 | 0.232 to 0.308 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
2044 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 13.2% |
| BB% | 10.3% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
4747 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.252 |
| K% | 14.2% |
| BB% | 9.5% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |