Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-16 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-16

Aaron Nola

PHI · SP · throws R · age 33
Projected starter Opp K 21.9% Neutral
MatchupPHI vs NYMopponent
Sample1812.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 15 rows
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts5.5
P 44.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.9% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 122 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 44.8
F 45.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 44.8% Market 52.8% Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel -112 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
20
ERA5.75
14
BB%7.6%
65
K%23.8%
58 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
45
Barrel allowed9.9%
21 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo91.9
15
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
42
Whiff%25.1%
66 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+103
66
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+103
54
Changeup Stuff+103
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+94
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range18.4% to 27.7%
Opponent K21.9%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-16
Palantir 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3783 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)