Consensus & Disagreement | Mithrandir Metrics

BANDS aligned ≤ 5pp · soft 6-10pp · disagreement > 10pp ELIGIBLE 2 markets MIXED 0 rows outside publish bands VIEW split

Lane Health 2026-06-01

Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable

Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling

Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable

Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building

Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building

Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building

Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Filter rules Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

A · Three-lane aligned · spread ≤ 5pp

01 HR · 0.5 Freddie Freeman LAD vs AZ

FULL
19.4% average · market 16.2% 4.5 pts +3.2pp 02 HR · 0.5 Ketel Marte AZ vs LAD

FULL
19.1% average · market 21.5% 3.7 pts -2.4pp 03 HR · 0.5 Zach Neto LAA vs COL

FULL
18.9% average · market 16.3% 3.0 pts +2.6pp 04 HR · 0.5 Corbin Carroll AZ vs LAD

FULL
18.9% average · market 16.0% 3.0 pts +2.9pp 05 HR · 0.5 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD vs PHI

FULL
18.9% average · market 16.4% 2.9 pts +2.5pp 06 HR · 0.5 Tyler Soderstrom ATH vs CHC

FULL
18.9% average · market 14.0% 2.8 pts +4.8pp 07 HR · 0.5 Iván Herrera STL vs TEX

FULL
18.8% average · market 12.5% 2.6 pts +6.3pp 08 HR · 0.5 Elly De La Cruz CIN vs KC

FULL
18.8% average · market 15.0% 2.5 pts +3.7pp 09 HR · 0.5 Mike Trout LAA vs COL

FULL
18.6% average · market 19.2% 2.2 pts -0.6pp 10 HR · 0.5 Shohei Ohtani LAD vs AZ

FULL
18.6% average · market 29.8% 2.1 pts -11.2pp 11 HR · 0.5 Aaron Judge NYY vs CLE

FULL
18.6% average · market 31.2% 1.9 pts -12.7pp 12 HR · 0.5 Brandon Nimmo TEX vs STL

FULL
18.5% average · market 15.6% 1.8 pts +2.9pp 13 HR · 0.5 Geraldo Perdomo AZ vs LAD

FULL
18.5% average · market 8.9% 1.8 pts +9.7pp 14 HR · 0.5 Wilyer Abreu BOS vs BAL

FULL
18.5% average · market 15.5% 1.8 pts +3.0pp 15 HR · 0.5 Bryce Harper PHI vs SD

FULL
18.4% average · market 19.6% 3.7 pts -1.2pp 16 HR · 0.5 Vinnie Pasquantino KC vs CIN

FULL
18.4% average · market 16.0% 1.6 pts +2.4pp 17 HR · 0.5 Heliot Ramos SF vs MIL

FULL
18.4% average · market 13.7% 1.5 pts +4.7pp 18 HR · 0.5 Kyle Tucker LAD vs AZ

FULL
18.3% average · market 19.1% 3.2 pts -0.8pp 19 HR · 0.5 Yoán Moncada LAA vs COL

FULL
18.2% average · market 12.8% 1.0 pts +5.5pp 20 HR · 0.5 Lawrence Butler ATH vs CHC

FULL
18.2% average · market 14.9% 0.8 pts +3.3pp 21 HR · 0.5 Bobby Witt Jr. KC vs CIN

FULL
18.2% average · market 17.3% 2.9 pts +0.8pp 22 HR · 0.5 Juan Soto NYM vs SEA

FULL
18.1% average · market 24.1% 0.6 pts -6.0pp 23 HR · 0.5 Roman Anthony BOS vs BAL

FULL
18.1% average · market 12.0% 0.6 pts +6.1pp 24 HR · 0.5 Cody Bellinger NYY vs CLE

FULL
18.1% average · market 16.2% 2.6 pts +1.9pp 25 HR · 0.5 Manny Machado SD vs PHI

FULL
18.0% average · market 18.9% 2.5 pts -0.8pp 26 HR · 0.5 Mookie Betts LAD vs AZ

FULL
18.0% average · market 15.4% 2.5 pts +2.7pp 27 HR · 0.5 Brandon Lowe PIT vs HOU

FULL
18.0% average · market 20.4% 2.4 pts -2.4pp 28 HR · 0.5 Wyatt Langford TEX vs STL

FULL
18.0% average · market 14.4% 2.3 pts +3.6pp 29 HR · 0.5 Alec Burleson STL vs TEX

FULL
18.0% average · market 13.3% 0.1 pts +4.7pp 30 HR · 0.5 José Ramírez CLE vs NYY

FULL
18.0% average · market 20.4% 2.2 pts -2.5pp 31 HR · 0.5 Junior Caminero TB vs DET

FULL
17.9% average · market 22.0% 0.1 pts -4.0pp 32 HR · 0.5 Jo Adell LAA vs COL

FULL
17.9% average · market 19.6% 0.0 pts -1.7pp 33 HR · 0.5 Kyle Schwarber PHI vs SD

FULL
17.8% average · market 27.0% 1.9 pts -9.2pp 34 HR · 0.5 Salvador Perez KC vs CIN

FULL
17.8% average · market 18.7% 1.9 pts -0.9pp 35 HR · 0.5 Ryan O'Hearn PIT vs HOU

FULL
17.8% average · market 13.0% 0.3 pts +4.8pp 36 HR · 0.5 Evan Carter TEX vs STL

FULL
17.7% average · market 11.0% 1.5 pts +6.8pp 37 HR · 0.5 Spencer Steer CIN vs KC

FULL
17.7% average · market 14.4% 1.5 pts +3.4pp 38 HR · 0.5 Giancarlo Stanton NYY vs CLE

FULL
17.7% average · market 23.5% 0.6 pts -5.8pp 39 HR · 0.5 Matt Chapman SF vs MIL

FULL
17.2% average · market 15.9% 0.0 pts +1.3pp 40 HR · 0.5 Jorge Polanco NYM vs SEA

FULL
17.2% average · market 16.2% 0.1 pts +1.0pp 41 HR · 0.5 Matt Wallner MIN vs CWS

FULL
17.1% average · market 20.0% 0.2 pts -2.9pp 42 HR · 0.5 Jarren Duran BOS vs BAL

FULL
17.1% average · market 11.8% 4.0 pts +5.3pp 43 HR · 0.5 Byron Buxton MIN vs CWS

FULL
17.0% average · market 21.1% 0.5 pts -4.0pp 44 HR · 0.5 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR vs ATL

FULL
16.8% average · market 16.2% 1.1 pts +0.7pp 45 HR · 0.5 Francisco Lindor NYM vs SEA

FULL
16.7% average · market 19.4% 3.7 pts -2.7pp 46 HR · 0.5 Nathan Lukes TOR vs ATL

FULL
16.6% average · market 9.1% 1.8 pts +7.5pp 47 HR · 0.5 Logan O'Hoppe LAA vs COL

FULL
16.6% average · market 15.2% 1.9 pts +1.3pp 48 HR · 0.5 Brandon Marsh PHI vs SD

FULL
16.6% average · market 11.0% 1.9 pts +5.6pp 49 HR · 0.5 Trea Turner PHI vs SD

FULL
16.5% average · market 14.1% 3.1 pts +2.4pp 50 HR · 0.5 Jakob Marsee MIA vs WSH

FULL
16.3% average · market 10.1% 1.6 pts +6.2pp 51 HR · 0.5 Jesús Sánchez TOR vs ATL

FULL
16.2% average · market 12.3% 3.0 pts +3.9pp 52 HR · 0.5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY vs CLE

FULL
16.2% average · market 17.9% 1.4 pts -1.7pp 53 HR · 0.5 Agustín Ramírez MIA vs WSH

FULL
16.2% average · market 14.0% 2.0 pts +2.1pp 54 HR · 0.5 Josh Bell MIN vs CWS

FULL
16.1% average · market 14.8% 1.9 pts +1.3pp 55 HR · 0.5 Bo Naylor CLE vs NYY

FULL
16.0% average · market 13.4% 1.0 pts +2.7pp 56 HR · 0.5 Bo Bichette NYM vs SEA

FULL
16.0% average · market 11.7% 0.8 pts +4.3pp 57 HR · 0.5 Corey Seager TEX vs STL

FULL
16.0% average · market 22.5% 1.5 pts -6.5pp 58 HR · 0.5 Willy Adames SF vs MIL

FULL
15.8% average · market 18.4% 4.6 pts -2.6pp 59 HR · 0.5 Willson Contreras BOS vs BAL

FULL
15.7% average · market 15.2% 4.6 pts +0.6pp 60 HR · 0.5 Trevor Larnach MIN vs CWS

FULL
15.6% average · market 11.9% 0.2 pts +3.6pp 61 HR · 0.5 Nick Castellanos SD vs PHI

FULL
15.5% average · market 14.2% 3.7 pts +1.2pp 62 HR · 0.5 Spencer Horwitz PIT vs HOU

FULL
15.5% average · market 11.3% 0.8 pts +4.1pp 63 HR · 0.5 Brent Rooker ATH vs CHC

FULL
15.4% average · market 21.5% 3.6 pts -6.1pp 64 HR · 0.5 Eugenio Suárez CIN vs KC

FULL
15.4% average · market 22.5% 3.6 pts -7.0pp 65 HR · 0.5 Kyle Manzardo CLE vs NYY

FULL
15.4% average · market 17.5% 3.6 pts -2.1pp 66 HR · 0.5 George Springer TOR vs ATL

FULL
15.3% average · market 17.7% 3.3 pts -2.4pp 67 HR · 0.5 Teoscar Hernández LAD vs AZ

FULL
15.2% average · market 18.4% 3.0 pts -3.1pp 68 HR · 0.5 Bryan Reynolds PIT vs HOU

FULL
15.2% average · market 13.5% 2.9 pts +1.7pp 69 HR · 0.5 Cedric Mullins TB vs DET

FULL
15.1% average · market 13.6% 2.8 pts +1.5pp 70 HR · 0.5 Shea Langeliers ATH vs CHC

FULL
15.1% average · market 20.8% 2.8 pts -5.7pp 71 HR · 0.5 Rafael Devers SF vs MIL

FULL
15.1% average · market 20.2% 2.6 pts -5.1pp 72 HR · 0.5 Matt Olson ATL vs TOR

FULL
15.0% average · market 21.7% 2.3 pts -6.7pp 73 HR · 0.5 Jake Cronenworth SD vs PHI

FULL
14.9% average · market 9.6% 2.0 pts +5.3pp 74 HR · 0.5 Max Muncy LAD vs AZ

FULL
14.9% average · market 19.2% 1.9 pts -4.4pp 75 HR · 0.5 Adolis García PHI vs SD

FULL
14.7% average · market 18.0% 1.6 pts -3.3pp 76 HR · 0.5 Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL vs TOR

FULL
14.5% average · market 19.4% 1.0 pts -4.9pp 77 HR · 0.5 Tyler Stephenson CIN vs KC

FULL
14.5% average · market 13.0% 0.8 pts +1.5pp 78 HR · 0.5 Carlos Santana AZ vs LAD

FULL
14.5% average · market 13.8% 2.8 pts +0.6pp 79 HR · 0.5 Marcell Ozuna PIT vs HOU

FULL
14.4% average · market 21.1% 2.6 pts -6.6pp 80 HR · 0.5 Nolan Schanuel LAA vs COL

FULL
14.4% average · market 8.5% 0.5 pts +5.9pp 81 HR · 0.5 Mike Yastrzemski ATL vs TOR

FULL
14.3% average · market 13.5% 0.3 pts +0.9pp 82 HR · 0.5 Alec Bohm PHI vs SD

FULL
14.3% average · market 10.7% 0.1 pts +3.6pp 83 HR · 0.5 Tj Friedl CIN vs KC

FULL
14.0% average · market 11.7% 1.4 pts +2.3pp 84 HR · 0.5 Daulton Varsho TOR vs ATL

FULL
14.0% average · market 17.5% 1.2 pts -3.6pp 85 HR · 0.5 Joc Pederson TEX vs STL

FULL
13.9% average · market 14.8% 0.9 pts -0.9pp 86 HR · 0.5 Jorge Soler LAA vs COL

FULL
13.9% average · market 17.2% 1.5 pts -3.4pp 87 HR · 0.5 Drake Baldwin ATL vs TOR

FULL
13.7% average · market 16.0% 1.6 pts -2.3pp 88 HR · 0.5 Ozzie Albies ATL vs TOR

FULL
13.6% average · market 14.1% 0.6 pts -0.5pp 89 HR · 0.5 Lane Thomas KC vs CIN

FULL
13.4% average · market 13.9% 0.1 pts -0.5pp 90 HR · 0.5 Jonathan India KC vs CIN

FULL
13.4% average · market 9.8% 0.0 pts +3.5pp 91 HR · 0.5 Royce Lewis MIN vs CWS

FULL
13.1% average · market 15.8% 0.7 pts -2.6pp 92 HR · 0.5 Jake Burger TEX vs STL

FULL
13.0% average · market 19.2% 1.1 pts -6.2pp 93 HR · 0.5 Marcus Semien NYM vs SEA

FULL
12.0% average · market 13.8% 2.4 pts -1.8pp 94 HR · 0.5 Austin Riley ATL vs TOR

FULL
11.7% average · market 17.0% 0.9 pts -5.2pp 95 HR · 0.5 José Caballero NYY vs CLE

FULL
11.5% average · market 7.9% 1.1 pts +3.6pp 96 HR · 0.5 Steven Kwan CLE vs NYY

FULL
10.9% average · market 8.7% 0.6 pts +2.2pp 97 HR · 0.5 Xavier Edwards MIA vs WSH

FULL
10.6% average · market 7.7% 1.4 pts +2.9pp 98 HR · 0.5 Daniel Schneemann CLE vs NYY

FULL
10.5% average · market 11.1% 4.4 pts -0.6pp 99 HR · 0.5 Jake Mangum PIT vs HOU

FULL
9.1% average · market 7.7% 0.1 pts +1.4pp 100 HR · 0.5 Luis Arraez SF vs MIL

FULL
8.6% average · market 7.7% 1.4 pts +0.9pp

B · Soft consensus · spread 6-10pp

01 HR · 0.5 Yandy Díaz TB vs DET

FULL
24.2% average · market 14.2% 5.4 pts +9.9pp 02 HR · 0.5 Jonathan Aranda TB vs DET

FULL
24.1% average · market 12.7% 5.5 pts +11.4pp 03 HR · 0.5 Jackson Merrill SD vs PHI

FULL
15.6% average · market 16.3% 6.8 pts -0.6pp 04 HR · 0.5 Nick Kurtz ATH vs CHC

FULL
13.6% average · market 27.0% 6.6 pts -13.4pp 05 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs CWS

FULL
6.5% average · market 11.0% 9.2 pts -4.5pp 06 HR · 0.5 Victor Scott II STL vs TEX

FULL
2.4% average · market 8.0% 7.2 pts -5.6pp 07 HR · 0.5 Chandler Simpson TB vs DET

FULL
1.7% average · market 8.0% 5.1 pts -6.3pp

C · Disagreement watch · spread > 10pp

01 HR · 0.5 Tyler Fitzgerald SF vs MIL

FULL
Palantir sees 13.4%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 13.4 pts. Market fair: 11.6%. 13.4 pts -7.2pp 02 HR · 0.5 Jacob Wilson ATH vs CHC

FULL
Palantir sees 10.5%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.5 pts. Market fair: 8.7%. 10.5 pts -5.2pp 03 HR · 0.5 Luke Keaschall MIN vs CWS

FULL
Palantir sees 12.6%; Fangorn sees 3.4%; gap of 9.2 pts. Market fair: 10.5%. 9.2 pts -4.0pp 04 HR · 0.5 Victor Scott II STL vs TEX

FULL
Palantir sees 7.2%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 7.2 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. 7.2 pts -5.3pp 05 HR · 0.5 Jackson Merrill SD vs PHI

FULL
Palantir sees 20.2%; Fangorn sees 13.4%; gap of 6.8 pts. Market fair: 15.5%. 6.8 pts +0.1pp 06 HR · 0.5 Nick Kurtz ATH vs CHC

FULL
Palantir sees 18.1%; Fangorn sees 11.4%; gap of 6.6 pts. Market fair: 26.5%. 6.6 pts -12.8pp 07 HR · 0.5 Jonathan Aranda TB vs DET

FULL
Fangorn sees 26.0%; Palantir sees 20.4%; gap of 5.5 pts. Market fair: 12.8%. 5.5 pts +11.3pp 08 HR · 0.5 Yandy Díaz TB vs DET

FULL
Fangorn sees 26.0%; Palantir sees 20.6%; gap of 5.4 pts. Market fair: 14.2%. 5.4 pts +9.9pp 09 HR · 0.5 Chandler Simpson TB vs DET

FULL
Palantir sees 5.1%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 5.1 pts. Market fair: 8.0%. 5.1 pts -6.3pp

D · Coverage transparency

Three-lane eligible 2 Home Runs · Total Bases

Partial coverage 2 Hits · Pitcher Outs

Single-lane 2 Strikeouts · Futures

Contract 5 / 10 Consensus thresholds documented in the lane contract.