Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 22 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 234 lb |
| Debut | 2026-05-22 |
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates
Esmerlyn Valdez
RF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 234 lb · Age 22
Club Pittsburgh Pirates
Position RF
Roster Current MLB team
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 287 | 40 | 56 | 17 | 0 | .232 | .345 | .510 | .855 |
| 1 Seasons | 287 | 40 | 56 | 17 | 0 | .232 | .345 | .510 | .855 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
92
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.276 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.332 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.260
0.283
0.308
0.333
0.356
wOBA
0.335
0.352
0.371
0.391
0.408
ISO
0.175
0.194
0.216
0.237
0.256
K%
23.7%
26.8%
30.2%
33.7%
36.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
96
+61 vs proj
Exit velocity91.9
93
Hard-hit%49.3%
93
+48 vs proj
xBA0.362
89
xSLG0.798
99
xwOBA0.332
80
+32 vs proj
BB%14.6%
97
+63 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
84
K%37.6%
2
-36 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-4.3 · RF
2
Arm Strength90.8 · RF
24
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
50
Range Runs1.8 · RF
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
68
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
67
Correct Decisions71.4% · rebadged research
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
50
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
56
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
69
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
67 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.031 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.070 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Valdez’s wOBA sits at 0.371, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.332 — a gap of 0.039, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 287 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-08-16 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 19 | 2026-09-11 | 3 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +3.476 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.301 xwOBA | 6 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-4 | 2 K |