Reference layer
Current snapshot
| MLB bio context is unavailable. |
Player profile / AZ
Jordan Lawlar
Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 195 lb · Age 24
Club AZ
Position --
Roster profile
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .129 | .206 | .129 | .335 |
| 2025 | 74 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 2 | .182 | .257 | .288 | .545 |
| 2026 | 136 | 18 | 32 | 6 | 6 | .258 | .319 | .460 | .779 |
| 3 Seasons | 244 | 29 | 48 | 6 | 9 | .217 | .284 | .362 | .646 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
54
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.246 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.272 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.219
0.244
0.272
0.300
0.326
wOBA
0.359
0.383
0.410
0.437
0.462
ISO
0.084
0.108
0.134
0.161
0.184
K%
20.1%
23.4%
27.0%
30.7%
34.0%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
47
+19 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
25
Hard-hit%33.3%
28
xBA0.362
89
xSLG0.585
77
xwOBA0.311
60
+50 vs proj
BB%6.0%
22
Bat speed65.2
8
K%27.8%
24
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
24
Arm Strength88.7 · CF
16
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
25
Range Runs1.4 · CF
62
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts7.0 · CF
54
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
84
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.4% · rebadged research
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions72.5% · rebadged research
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.252 · borderline
98
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
48
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354 · validated
23
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380 · validated
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
96
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
65 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.060 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.159 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Lawlar’s wOBA sits at 0.410, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.311 — a gap of 0.099, -2.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 151 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-04-02 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
| Fielding | 10 | 2026-09-25 | 4 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +2.126 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.251 xwOBA | 6 HR | Projection |