Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Kevin Kelly

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 195 lb · Age 28

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024522.67680170.2630.96
2025255.90410039.2351.36
2026532.35420446.0340.91
4 Seasons17123.3020806223.11881.04
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.54
ERA current pace2.44
ERA rolling p503.08
Observed weight42%
ERA
1.54 2.27 3.08 3.89 4.61
FIP
2.54 3.12 3.75 4.39 4.97
K%
15.9% 18.1% 20.4% 22.8% 24.9%
BB%
3.0% 4.0% 5.2% 6.3% 7.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.93
94
ERA2.44
88
BB%4.6%
98
K%18.3%
20 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
43
Barrel allowed6.9%
63 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed48.9%
3
Whiff%15.9%
4 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Sinker Stuff+107
88
Changeup Stuff+103
60
Fastball Stuff+95
13
Mithrandir Stuff+108
91
Slider Stuff+107
87
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kelly, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.321 2026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3222026-07-10: 0.3222026-07-11: 0.3222026-07-12: 0.3172026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3212026-07-15: 0.3212026-07-16: 0.3212026-07-17: 0.3212026-07-18: 0.321 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 59%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 59.5%Changeup: 23.8%Sweeper: 10.8%4-Seam Fastball: 4.9%Cutter: 1.0% SI59% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 59%CH 24%ST 11%FF 5%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 59% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 78.3 mphST78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 60.2% 239 107 qualified
CH 22.7% 90 103 limited sample
SL 11.6% 46 107 limited sample
FB 4.8% 19 95 limited sample
FC 0.8% 3 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 2"
Weight195 lb
Debut2023-04-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.54
K% Δ-0.029

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.296
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.321

Kelly’s wOBA-against sits at 0.296, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.025, -0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 45 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.2% K | 3.98 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 vs NYY0 ER / 0 K1.2 IP
2026-04-11 vs NYY0 ER / 1 K0.1 IP
2026-04-06 vs CHC0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ MIN0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-03 @ MIN5 ER / 1 K0.1 IP