Mithrandir Metrics
Player Toronto Blue Jays Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays

Louis Varland

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 205 lb · Age 28

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Toronto Blue Jays Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024067.61167049.2491.69
2025432.97741072.2751.20
2026561.277103578.0971.00
5 Seasons14203.761832335294.13131.24
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
92
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
88
Arsenal6 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace1.30
ERA rolling p502.51
Observed weight57%
ERA
1.21 1.83 2.51 3.20 3.81
FIP
1.95 2.41 2.92 3.43 3.89
K%
25.4% 26.9% 28.5% 30.2% 31.7%
BB%
5.7% 6.5% 7.2% 8.0% 8.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.99
93
ERA1.30
99
BB%7.3%
74
K%32.0%
96 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.239
98 +38 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.2%
92 +67 vs proj
Fastball velo98.7
98
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
64
Whiff%26.4%
79
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+104
78
Fastball Stuff+108
91
Mithrandir Stuff+107
88
Changeup Stuff+109
93
Sinker Stuff+89
4
Slider Stuff+110
96
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Varland, Louis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.239 2026-09-12: 0.2322026-09-13: 0.2322026-09-14: 0.2322026-09-18: 0.2362026-09-19: 0.2362026-09-20: 0.2362026-09-21: 0.2402026-09-22: 0.2402026-09-23: 0.2402026-09-24: 0.2402026-09-25: 0.2402026-09-26: 0.239 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Varland, Louis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Louis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.1%Knuckle Curve: 30.5%Changeup: 17.8%Slider: 8.1%Sinker: 2.5% FF41% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 41%KC 30%CH 18%SL 8%SI 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Louis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.8 mphFF99 mphKnuckle Curve: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 87.7 mphKC88 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.1 mphCH93 mphSlider: 8% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 92.1 mphSL92 mphSinker: 2% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 96.9 mphSI97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.9% 360 108 qualified
CB 29.7% 255 104 qualified
CH 17.1% 147 109 limited sample
SL 8.3% 71 110 limited sample
SI 3.1% 27 89 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 1"
Weight205 lb
Debut2022-09-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-2.72
K% Δ+0.075

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.255
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.239

Varland’s wOBA-against sits at 0.255, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.239 — a gap of 0.016, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 80 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12025-10-08Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.5% K | 4.02 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs NYY0 ER / 3 K1.0 IP
2026-05-20 @ NYY1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ LAA0 ER / 3 K1.1 IP
2026-04-14 @ MIL0 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-12 vs MIN0 ER / 3 K1.0 IP