Mithrandir Metrics
Player Milwaukee Brewers Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers

Aaron Ashby

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 0", 194 lb · Age 28

Cards
7
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Milwaukee Brewers Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024122.86142028.1331.06
2025522.16431366.2761.17
2026902.72311043.0591.33
5 Seasons20163.48128275277.03331.28
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal6 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason3.37
ERA current pace2.85
ERA rolling p503.14
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.00 2.54 3.14 3.74 4.28
FIP
2.73 3.02 3.35 3.67 3.97
K%
24.6% 26.4% 28.3% 30.2% 32.0%
BB%
8.0% 9.0% 10.2% 11.3% 12.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
37
ERA2.85
75
BB%12.5%
14 -30 vs proj
K%31.8%
95 +24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.279
81 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.9%
83
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed43.7%
25
Whiff%30.8%
92 +36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-14
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Sinker Stuff+102
52
Changeup Stuff+94
7
Curveball Stuff+101
28
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Slider Stuff+98
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashby, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.279 2026-06-03: 0.2572026-06-04: 0.2622026-06-05: 0.2622026-06-06: 0.2702026-06-07: 0.2702026-06-08: 0.2702026-06-09: 0.2702026-06-10: 0.2782026-06-11: 0.2782026-06-12: 0.2792026-06-13: 0.2792026-06-14: 0.279 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashby, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 31%31%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashby, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 52.2%Curveball: 19.0%Slider: 15.3%Changeup: 9.9%4-Seam Fastball: 3.6% SI52% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 52%CU 19%SL 15%CH 10%FF 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashby, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 52% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 97.3 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 83.0 mphCU83 mphSlider: 15% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.4 mphCH91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 51.0% 310 102 qualified
CB 18.3% 111 101 limited sample
SL 16.0% 97 98 limited sample
CH 10.4% 63 94 limited sample
FB 4.4% 27 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 0"
Weight194 lb
Debut2021-06-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.76
K% Δ+0.063

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.340
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.279

Ashby’s wOBA-against sits at 0.340, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.279 — a gap of 0.061, 1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 44 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching72026-04-10Sinker played up through SI/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.5% K | 3.61 ERAProjection
2026-04-15 vs TOR0 ER / 3 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs WSH0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-08 @ BOS0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ BOS0 ER / 0 K1.1 IP
2026-04-04 @ KC2 ER / 3 K1.2 IP