Mithrandir Metrics
Player Milwaukee Brewers Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers

Aaron Ashby

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 0", 194 lb · Age 28

Cards
7
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Milwaukee Brewers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024122.86142028.1331.06
2025522.16431366.2761.17
20261333.19741387.11141.34
5 Seasons24193.50171278321.13881.29
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
70
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.37
ERA current pace3.31
ERA rolling p503.33
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.17 2.72 3.33 3.95 4.50
FIP
2.75 3.05 3.38 3.72 4.02
K%
25.7% 27.0% 28.5% 30.0% 31.3%
BB%
8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.2% 12.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
47
ERA3.31
75
BB%11.5%
22 -24 vs proj
K%30.4%
94 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.271
89 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.9%
87 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo97.6
92
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
30
Whiff%29.5%
92 +33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Changeup Stuff+94
12
Curveball Stuff+103
60
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Slider Stuff+98
21
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ashby, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.271 2026-09-12: 0.2632026-09-13: 0.2662026-09-14: 0.2662026-09-18: 0.2732026-09-19: 0.2732026-09-20: 0.2732026-09-21: 0.2732026-09-22: 0.2732026-09-23: 0.2732026-09-24: 0.2732026-09-25: 0.2732026-09-26: 0.271 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 52%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ashby, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashby, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 52.2%Curveball: 22.5%Slider: 11.8%Changeup: 11.5%4-Seam Fastball: 2.0% SI52% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 52%CU 22%SL 12%CH 11%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ashby, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 52% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.6 mphSI98 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 83.6 mphCU84 mphSlider: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.8 mphCH92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 51.6% 457 104 qualified
CB 20.7% 183 103 limited sample
SL 13.7% 121 98 limited sample
CH 10.9% 97 94 limited sample
FB 3.2% 28 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 0"
Weight194 lb
Debut2021-06-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.30
K% Δ+0.048

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.319
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.271

Ashby’s wOBA-against sits at 0.319, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.271 — a gap of 0.048, 1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 90 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching72026-04-10Sinker played up through SI/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.5% K | 3.61 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ LAD0 ER / 2 K2.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs TOR0 ER / 3 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs WSH0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-08 @ BOS0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ BOS0 ER / 0 K1.1 IP