Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Yankees Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Yankees

David Bednar

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 250 lb · Age 31

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Yankees Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024385.776202357.2581.42
2025652.306402762.2861.04
2026332.703701840.0451.10
8 Seasons21263.103520129357.14341.15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal3 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace2.70
ERA rolling p503.25
Observed weight41%
ERA
1.63 2.40 3.25 4.11 4.87
FIP
1.12 1.97 2.91 3.85 4.70
K%
22.9% 25.2% 27.8% 30.4% 32.8%
BB%
5.1% 6.3% 7.7% 9.0% 10.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.06
86
ERA2.70
83
BB%7.1%
74 +25 vs proj
K%27.6%
82
xwOBA allowed0.262
93 +23 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.7%
94 +55 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
65
Whiff%27.6%
81
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+102
43
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Curveball Stuff+104
84
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bednar, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.262 2026-07-05: 0.2612026-07-06: 0.2612026-07-07: 0.2612026-07-08: 0.2592026-07-09: 0.2592026-07-10: 0.2592026-07-11: 0.2592026-07-12: 0.2612026-07-13: 0.2622026-07-14: 0.2622026-07-15: 0.2622026-07-16: 0.262 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bednar, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bednar, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.9%Split-Finger: 36.6%Curveball: 22.5% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%FS 37%CU 22% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bednar, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 37% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.8 mphFS91 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 76.7 mphCU77 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 62.2% 201 102 qualified
CB 37.8% 122 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 1"
Weight250 lb
Debut2019-09-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.48
K% Δ+0.007

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.280
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.262

Bednar’s wOBA-against sits at 0.280, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.262 — a gap of 0.018, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 42 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.9% K | 3.18 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 vs KC0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ TB1 ER / 1 K0.1 IP
2026-04-08 vs ATH1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs ATH0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP