Mithrandir Metrics
Player Boston Red Sox Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Boston Red Sox

Ryan Watson

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 225 lb · Age 28

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Boston Red Sox Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2026004.87240140.2321.40
1 Seasons004.87240140.2321.40
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
26
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace5.12
ERA rolling p504.81
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.83 3.77 4.81 5.86 6.80
FIP
2.13 3.11 4.20 5.29 6.27
K%
11.3% 14.1% 17.1% 20.2% 22.9%
BB%
4.4% 5.7% 7.1% 8.5% 9.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.41
33
ERA5.12
25
BB%8.5%
52 -16 vs proj
K%18.1%
21
xwOBA allowed0.392
2 -71 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.3%
3 -50 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed43.7%
24
Whiff%21.5%
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-14
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Curveball Stuff+101
29
Cutter Stuff+107
96
Fastball Stuff+100
35
Sinker Stuff+98
22
Slider Stuff+101
46
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Watson, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.392 2026-06-03: 0.4032026-06-04: 0.4032026-06-05: 0.3982026-06-06: 0.3982026-06-07: 0.3982026-06-08: 0.3982026-06-09: 0.3982026-06-10: 0.3982026-06-11: 0.3982026-06-12: 0.3922026-06-13: 0.3922026-06-14: 0.392 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 22%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Watson, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 22.4%4-Seam Fastball: 22.2%Sweeper: 22.0%Sinker: 17.0%Curveball: 14.6%Split-Finger: 1.7% FC22% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 22%FF 22%ST 22%SI 17%CU 15%FS 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Watson, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphSinker: 17% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.6 mphCU83 mphSplit-Finger: 2% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.9 mphFS89 mphSlider: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.0 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 23.6% 126 107 limited sample
FB 23.0% 123 100 limited sample
SL 21.0% 112 101 limited sample
SI 17.6% 94 98 limited sample
CB 14.8% 79 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight225 lb
Debut2026-03-28
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.63
K% Δ-0.002

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.379
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.392

Watson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.379, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.392 — a gap of 0.013, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 43 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.3% K | 4.49 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs DET3 ER / 0 K1.1 IP
2026-04-15 @ MIN4 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-13 @ MIN2 ER / 2 K2.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ STL0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs MIL0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP