Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Nate Pearson

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 255 lb · Age 30

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024224.48601266.1741.33
2025019.20110014.272.18
2026344.11420446.0411.37
6 Seasons12104.9316567202.22011.43
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.23
ERA current pace4.17
ERA rolling p504.20
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.97 3.03 4.20 5.38 6.43
FIP
3.00 3.43 3.91 4.39 4.82
K%
17.5% 19.6% 22.0% 24.4% 26.5%
BB%
8.2% 9.4% 10.8% 12.1% 13.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
37
ERA4.17
47
BB%12.6%
14 -35 vs proj
K%20.7%
40 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
39
Barrel allowed7.3%
53 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo97.5
92
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
67
Whiff%20.6%
32 -34 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Changeup Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Sinker Stuff+99
26
Slider Stuff+105
77
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Pearson, Nate · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.321 2026-09-13: 0.3042026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3042026-09-19: 0.3072026-09-20: 0.3072026-09-21: 0.3162026-09-22: 0.3162026-09-23: 0.3162026-09-24: 0.3162026-09-25: 0.3162026-09-26: 0.3212026-09-27: 0.321 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pearson, Nate · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 43%43%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pearson, Nate · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.3%Slider: 28.3%Sinker: 13.1%Curveball: 12.1%Changeup: 2.2% FF44% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 28%SI 13%CU 12%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pearson, Nate · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mphSlider: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.4 mphSL89 mphSinker: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 97.1 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 81.6 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.7% 239 100 qualified
SL 24.0% 123 105 limited sample
CB 13.7% 70 101 limited sample
SI 12.7% 65 99 limited sample
CH 2.9% 15 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 6"
Weight255 lb
Debut2020-07-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ-0.027

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.312
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.321

Pearson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.312, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.321 — a gap of 0.009, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 44 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.4% K | 4.71 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ LAA1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-05-20 @ MIN0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP