Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

Chase Shugart

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 200 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024004.156018.281.27
2025433.40350045.0311.11
2026214.02460053.2591.17
3 Seasons643.778701107.1981.16
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
58
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.82
ERA current pace4.17
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.19 3.04 3.99 4.94 5.79
FIP
3.50 3.99 4.53 5.07 5.56
K%
17.8% 19.5% 21.5% 23.5% 25.2%
BB%
6.8% 7.9% 9.2% 10.5% 11.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
65
ERA4.17
47
BB%10.0%
38
K%25.5%
74 +46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.303
63 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.7%
17 -22 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
60
Hard-hit allowed33.1%
86
Whiff%22.0%
46 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+101
43
Cutter Stuff+100
39
Fastball Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+104
60
Slider Stuff+101
44
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Shugart, Chase · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-09-12: 0.3052026-09-13: 0.3002026-09-14: 0.3002026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2982026-09-20: 0.2982026-09-21: 0.3042026-09-22: 0.3042026-09-23: 0.3042026-09-24: 0.3042026-09-25: 0.3042026-09-26: 0.303 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Shugart, Chase · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 30.6%Sinker: 27.8%Sweeper: 21.3%4-Seam Fastball: 10.9%Changeup: 9.4% FC31% · 91 mphprimary pitch FC 31%SI 28%ST 21%FF 11%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Shugart, Chase · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphFC91 mphSinker: 28% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 21% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.6 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.1 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 30.0% 164 100 limited sample
SI 28.5% 156 104 limited sample
SL 22.3% 122 101 limited sample
CH 10.2% 56 101 limited sample
FB 9.0% 49 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height5' 11"
Weight200 lb
Debut2024-08-15
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.27
K% Δ+0.068

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.344
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.303

Shugart’s wOBA-against sits at 0.344, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.303 — a gap of 0.041, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 54 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.8% K | 3.90 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ MIN0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ CHC0 ER / 2 K2.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs ATL1 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 vs CHC0 ER / 3 K2.0 IP