Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| Debut | 2020-09-01 |
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds
Ke'Bryan Hayes
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 215 lb · Age 29
Club Cincinnati Reds
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 396 | 38 | 85 | 4 | 11 | .233 | .283 | .290 | .573 |
| 2025 | 570 | 50 | 124 | 5 | 12 | .235 | .290 | .306 | .596 |
| 2026 | 242 | 19 | 32 | 5 | 1 | .141 | .194 | .225 | .419 |
| 7 Seasons | 2784 | 293 | 623 | 47 | 64 | .243 | .298 | .354 | .652 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.287 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.271
0.283
0.295
0.308
0.320
wOBA
0.203
0.219
0.237
0.255
0.271
ISO
0.089
0.102
0.117
0.132
0.145
K%
17.3%
18.4%
19.7%
21.0%
22.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
46
Exit velocity90.5
84
Hard-hit%41.1%
63
-16 vs proj
xBA0.301
31
xSLG0.473
41
xwOBA0.287
32
-20 vs proj
BB%6.5%
28
Bat speed69.2
44
K%19.6%
69
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
34
Arm Strength80.7 · 3B
6
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 3B
90
Range Runs3.6 · 3B
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · 3B
35
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.8% · rebadged research
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.8% · rebadged research
7
Correct Decisions62.0% · rebadged research
15
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.235 · borderline
100
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.254 · insufficient sample
96
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
79
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.293 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.301 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
16
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
154 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.067 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Hayes’s wOBA sits at 0.237, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.287 — a gap of 0.050, 1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 260 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 5 | 2026-08-02 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 18 | 2026-09-24 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.095 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.304 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs MIA1 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | HR, K, RBI |
| 2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-20 @ TB0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-15 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB |