Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Tony Santillan

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 285 lb · Age 29

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Current MLB team Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024333.00291030.0461.00
2025152.44800773.2751.11
2026346.42440540.2361.67
6 Seasons9163.67203516210.22351.32
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
12
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
15
Arsenal3 metrics
14
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.65
ERA current pace6.42
ERA rolling p504.90
Observed weight45%
ERA
3.23 4.02 4.90 5.77 6.56
FIP
4.00 4.50 5.05 5.59 6.09
K%
18.7% 20.8% 23.0% 25.3% 27.3%
BB%
8.9% 10.3% 11.8% 13.4% 14.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.66
9
ERA6.42
7
BB%14.7%
4 -37 vs proj
K%20.3%
36 -30 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.385
2 -27 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.7%
1 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
51
Hard-hit allowed46.0%
6
Whiff%18.9%
19 -52 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+99
28
Mithrandir Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+90
3
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Santillan, Tony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.385 2026-09-12: 0.3892026-09-13: 0.3842026-09-14: 0.3842026-09-18: 0.3852026-09-19: 0.3852026-09-20: 0.3852026-09-21: 0.3852026-09-22: 0.3852026-09-23: 0.3852026-09-24: 0.3852026-09-25: 0.3852026-09-26: 0.385 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 62%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Santillan, Tony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santillan, Tony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 62.5%Slurve: 29.9%Slider: 7.6% FF62% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 62%SV 30%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Santillan, Tony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 62% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mphSlurve: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 84.6 mphSV85 mphSlider: 8% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 62.6% 353 99 qualified
SL 37.4% 211 90 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 3"
Weight285 lb
Debut2021-06-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+2.46
K% Δ-0.038

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.402
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.385

Santillan’s wOBA-against sits at 0.402, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.385 — a gap of 0.016, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 42 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.1% K | 3.96 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ MIN0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 vs SF0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs LAA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ MIA0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ TEX0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP